Buffalo -7 in a playoff rematch in Orchard Park, New York. 27-24 last year in the playoffs in a game where the Bills had the lead and the Colts came back for a cover late. This matchup may be regular season but with New England now stepping up Buffalo needs the win to stay in first place alone with two meetings on the horizon with the Pats. The Colts have allowed the most passing TDs at 23, Josh Allen has gone for 19 TD and 6 INT. In contrast the Bills have only allowed 6 passing TDs this year. They have held opponents under 24 points in 8 of 9 games this year and come in with the top ranked defense. They are allowing only 29 % conversions on 3rd down, while converting 48.7% of their own third downs. Their offense running 67.1 plays per game, and are 5th in the league in time of possession.
The Colts started off with a rough schedule and after that 0-3 start have won 5 of 7 games. Wentz has the highest passer rating amongst QBs to face the Bills. He was of course not in that playoff game last year.
Allen went for 324 in that playoff game, and at +145 points the Bills are first in margin of victory this year. This is a tougher opponent than they have faced in several of their games. We could easily see the Bills up by say 10 points in the fourth quarter with a comeback and possible cover in the balance of what happens. The Bills have covered in every game they have won, whereas they have no wins and not covers. Something to consider if your planning on wagering there. My prediction 27-22 Bills.
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