by: GriffPosted on:

Patriots vs. Bills

Bills -5, Total 43.5 for tonight’s playoff game in Buffalo. These two teams split the season series with each winning on the others home field. Temperatures expected to be -2 with winds in the mid-teens. The meeting in Foxboro went 33-21 Bills and the meeting in Orchard park went 14-10 New England. The Bills team total is where we look at the key to the game at 24.5, the Bills have scored over 25 13 times this year, and New England is 0-5 when allowing 25 or more points this year. For all the great New England stats here’s one the other way, Bill Belichick is 3-7 as head coach in the postseason vs teams that beat him that season (lost 5 straight). The Bills under Sean McDermott are 2-0 in home playoff games and 0-3 on the road.

The Bills bring in the number one scoring defense at 17.0 per game, number one opponents yards per game at 272.8 per game, 202.0 the last 3 games. They also bring in the 3rd scoring per game at 28.4 per game. Their offense pass heavy running the ball only 40.33% of the time for the year. Josh Allen has typically had more trouble at home than on the road vs. New England, 1 TD 4 INT with a 52.1 passer rating for Allen at home, vs 10 TD 2 INT and a 98.2 rating in Foxboro. A large part of that is the wind and it shouldn’t be nearly as much a factor tonight as it was in their first meeting at home. Allen is 1-2 at home vs. Patriots, 3-4 overall vs. Patriots.

The Patriots only passed the ball three times in the first meeting between these two teams, the second meeting Buffalo was able to pass the ball better and running every down became less of an option. New England is 6th in the league in percent of run plays and they will be likely leaning on the run game to set up play action and it’ll be up to their defense to keep them in the game. The Bills not the only one with a great defense as New England is second in scoring allowed at 17.8 per game, the pass defense second only to Buffalo as well at 187.1 per game allowed. How they fare against the pass heavy Bills attack will likely decide this game. Rookie QBs have typically not done well against number one overall defenses 0-3 in the Super Bowl era, however this rookie does have a great head coach and a great offensive coordinator to guide him through the process.

For me with these teams my best play here is the under 43.5, my prediction 20-17 Bills.

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