Daytime Baseball 4-20-22 Pirates vs. Brewers

The Brewers going for the sweep in the 3 game series at home today. A feat they accomplished last year while winning 14 of 20 from the Pirates last year. They have started 2-0 this year. Woodruff 2.3 runs allowed per game in his 10 starts against the Pirates since 2017 but hasn’t shut out the Pirates since 2019. On the hill for Pittsburgh, Mitch Keller who is making his first start against the division favorite Brewers. Keller has a 9.39 era after his first two starts. With the Brewers -240 on the money line I look elsewhere for an even money play on the heavy favorites, some may move to the run line -1.5 at -120… but for me I move to the team total at over 4.5 to keep my play at one unit. According to MLBsweeps.com a team has a 27.61% chance of completing a sweep in a 3 game series and the odds for the home team after winning game 1 move slightly better to 30.64%. The Pirates have been swept more than any other team in MLB some 507 times, while avoiding a sweep in this situation 401 times. We do see 77% of the consensus money on the Brewers for the sweep, of course 240 will only get you a hundred back on the heavy favorite if they are successful.