Game 1
The top seed Heat look to set the tone for the series as they get the Sixers without Embiid. The season series went 2-2 with both teams winning one away and one on the others floor. The Embiid injury creates many options of things that could happen.
Reed gets the start at center and Rivers may end up actually giving the Heat some different lineups that they would have not otherwise seen. Harden for his career 24.8 points, 6.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds in 25 games vs. the Heat. However he has not yet seen them in a Sixers uniform and while with the Nets he only went for 12, 20 and 14 in 3 games. While with the Rockets as the number one option he went 31.7 points, 7.5 assists and 6.2 rebounds in 16 games.
On paper the Embiid injury gives the Heat a clear advantage particularly at center where Adebayo was in the running for defensive player of the year and his ability to provide help defense now should be greatly increased. One thing to consider on the Heat side is the Lowry injury, he was a key addition that made them the 1 seed and even though he is not the first option offensively he is still the point guard and him being out could as game changing as Embiid on the other side.
Phoenix had the NBA’s top record and have ruled the matchup with Dallas winning 9 in row. After seeing Booker back to help close things out in the first round we will have to wait and see if there are any issues with the hamstring or not. Even with recent history on the side of Phoenix the thing is Dallas has not faced the Suns since the trade was made bringing in Dinwiddie and Bertans which lead to more playing time and more shots for Powell and Kleber. One thing to watch for is that both these teams are number one(Dallas) and three(Phoenix) in Opponent Three Point %. This Dallas team for having lost 9 straight vs the Suns is actually not that big of an underdog for the series. They may not win the series but I don’t think the Mavs are going out as easy as that stat would lead one to believe.
It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out and one thing I can tell you is yesterday both road teams won both road teams aren’t winning today. At -127 the money line parlay of the favorites is a decent one unit play with only 27% juice. Miami -380 and Phoenix -240 because if you play them individually if one loses your losing more than parlaying them together making your odds -127. (MIA)-7.5 and (Pho) -6.5 favorites may or may not cover and even with both winning outright the most likely scenario both Philly and Dallas still have enough to win and if they have a chance going down the stretch you can look for Doc Rivers or Jason Kidd to throw the kitchen sink at stealing one on the road.