Teams that win the first two games of a best-of-seven series go on to win the series 93.1% of the time (201-15). Either of these could end up being a sweep after seeing the first two games, and conference semifinals are sweeps 20.74% of the time. Teams that win game 3 to take a 3-0 lead have won 100% of the time. That is the situation that the Sixers and the Mavericks look to avoid. One game at home to try to extend their season. Tell-tale signs of better chances to win for both as the oddsmakers have Dallas -110 and +1 against a team that has beat them 11 times in a row. Dallas lost by 7 & 20 in games 1 and 2, yet the ESPN Basketball Power Index has them as having a 63.1% chance of winning. The Sixers +3 and +135 after losing by 14 and 16 in games 1 and 2. ESPN’s matchup predictor has the Sixers as 53.3% chance to win according to their Basketball Power Index
For all the talk about the Dylan Brooks foul being a dirty play we aren’t hearing about Paschal Siakam and the elbow that has Embiid and the Sixers looking like they are gonna struggle to win one game here. All the media focus on Harden and that he hasn’t been the same player, not taking as many shots, not scoring as many points. Their leading scorer has been out though and their number 2 and 3 scorers in the playoffs have been Maxey and Harris. Embiid’s status may change and the role players usually play better at home. Well see how works out.
Dallas at -110 makes you really wonder about game 3 and is Dallas going to really be able to keep up for 48 minutes or is Phoenix going to still win 3 quarters as they have done in the first two games. Either way the Suns appear to be on the way to the Western Conference Finals. Dallas is still much improved as they made it out of the first round. Teams that lead a best-of-seven series 2-1 go on to win the series 79.2% of the time (210-55), vs 3-0 teams have won 100% of the time.
For both these teams their entire season is on the line and while I don’t recommend parlaying them my picks are the Sixers +3 or +135 if your feeling brave, and Dallas -110 or +1.