After Rich Strike with the longest odds won the Kentucky Derby from Calumet Farm where I swam in the pool when I was a child(that was the 80’s so new owners I believe) I get the feeling it may not be a bad year. Putting the odds in their favor is what is at stake tonight in a pair of game 5’s, teams that lead a best-of-seven series 3-2 go on to win the series 85.6% of the time (172-29). After game 2 with talk of a possible sweep of Philadelphia it was Harden at the press conference casually saying, “We will be back here tied for game 5.” After the return of Embiid them winning their two home games was not a surprise to anyone. Home court tends to add 3 to 4 points to the spread. Tonight we see Miami -159, and 3.5 (3 at some books). That is pretty much where things sit we have both teams now at full strength and the chance to put themselves with an 85.6% chance to win the series. This one can go either way tonight and while a 3-2 lead would be great for the Sixers, the pressure is on the Heat to hold serve after the two games in Philly evened things up. This will be a good one and while I lean towards the Heat in a close one I’m not even going to attempt a pick.
The Suns will look to forget the two games they just had in Dallas. Chris Paul and his plus minus has been what has directly correlated to wins and losses for the Suns in the playoffs. This year and going back through last years playoffs every game he has a plus has been a win for the Suns and every game he has a minus has been a loss. That being said after he watched the tape of last game and everyone else on the Suns kind of felt like the ref’s were against them. Suns -238 the most likely win tonight and laying -6 is possible the Suns will cover. I’d expect them to bounce back after a rough game between the fouls and the 3 point defense, the Suns only hit 9 3’s (9-25) where Dallas hit 20 (20-44).