So the Browns went from a heavy favorite to an underdog with the announcement of the Watson suspension, taking the Panthers from +4.5 to -1. To juice things up we have Baker Mayfield now the starting QB in Carolina and the, “We are going to fuck them up” being rumored to be his attitude in facing the team he was drafted first overall by and is ended their playoff drought winning in 2020 for their first playoff win since 1995.
What to expect? The Browns with a healthy backfield of Chubb (5.5 YPC), Hunt (4.9 YPC) and even third RB Johnson (5.3 YPC). The year average for Cleveland last year was 46% and the year before 47% run plays, but we did see them up around 62% in some games last year. The Browns recipe for success in this first 11 games will look similar to their game at Minnesota last year where they won 14-7 in a cloud of dust and defensive stops. They had 38 rush attempts and 33 pass attempts in that game which was one of the few where they had both Chubb and Hunt in action getting 21 carries for Chubb and 14 for Hunt. What might a Jacoby Brissett stat line look line in this game? 14-27 for 119 yards and a 63.9 passer rating as he did in his only appearance vs. them while QB for the Colts which was a lopsided game but we did see 27 pass attempts and 32 rush attempts from the Colts in that game a similar ratio to what the Browns will most likely look for.
The Panthers are one of those teams who when healthy are a threat to just about anyone. Mayfield played 60 games for the Browns throwing for 14,125 yards and leading the Browns to a playoff win. McCaffery brings his 4.5 YPC to the table, he has 23 of 33 games due to injury so having him healthy is a big deal, they were 4-3 in games where he played last year, they were 1-9 without him last year.
We see the total at 41.5 and there is 54 % of the the plays going on this thing being both teams under 20 here, which is where the Panthers first 3 games were last year. As far as the side play this thing right now has about 60 % of the money on just 31 % of the tickets on the Browns, with 40% of the money and 69% of the tickets on the Panthers. What does that mean? who knows and with new QB’s on both sides we can speculate but its really hard to know what will happen here.
One of the most interesting stats is the Browns are 1-21-1 in week 1 since 1998, but remember Mayfield was their starter the last 3 week 1’s, the tie being his rookie year started by Tyrod Taylor. So that is an interesting “overlapping” stat.
I’m thinking this is an under here and knowing this one could go either way my prediction is 19-17 Browns and as you know most of the public feels the other way here including most television analysts.