An AFC West divisional battle as the Chiefs who have now lost at Arrowhead Stadium twice in a row to the Chargers look to turn that around. These two teams have both won on the others home field the past two seasons, (Since Herbert has been in the league). Herbert has a passer rating of 108.3 with 1,130 yards, 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 4 games, and yea maybe we put an asterisks by one game in Arrowhead where the Chiefs had locked in the one seed and it was week 16 the year they lost to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl. On the Chargers side of things it appears that the Chargers may be the answer to the question of ,”Who are this years Bengals?” Of course how things go in January will determine if they are for real. They are the one of the only two teams whom have beaten Mahomes and KC in September, both last year the Ravens being the other. One key injury on the LA side Keenan Allen is out so that may or may not slow down the offense, however week 1 he was only 4 targets out of 34 passes and the ball was spread out everywhere. The Chargers have put up 29 PPG in Herbert’s 4 games vs. KC with a low of 20 and a high of 38. Last year the Chargers were 27.9 per game and 24.8 on the road, they scored 24 week 1.
As for Kansas City they come in with the most unusual of injured players here as Harrison Butker the place kicker is out for this one. September has been the best month for them since Mahomes became QB, they are 12-2 and its been as simple as 123.4… his passer rating in September, 46 TD and 3 INT. The last team to beat them in September was this Chargers team last year, however they would get revenge December 16th in LA in a game that went back and forth including a game tying drive in the final minute to tie the game at 28. The key “mismatch” if you will was Travis Kelce who went 10 receptions for 191 yards and 2 TDs, the tying TD and the winner in OT. Those last four matchups the Chiefs have scored 25.5 per game, with a high of 34 and a low of 21, they did put up 44 week 1 vs. Arizona. Last year the Chiefs put up 29.4 a game and 28.6 at home.
The line KC -4 and the total sits at 54….Only once in the last four matchups would KC have covered 4 and that took a walk-off TD in overtime. Only one of those four matchups would’ve been under the 54, even though it wouldn’t have been over that in the last match had LA held on the final possession of regulation. The consensus betting public has 70% of the money and 82% of the tickets on the over 54, I’ll refrain from picking a total play here because even though it may get that way I don’t think in a pro game that either coach wants his team giving up 28 or more period, therefore I would assume that betting for that over would be to plan for both teams defensive goals to fail. The line opened at KC-3.5 and now sits at KC-4, whether or not we see movement as gameday arrives at present the consensus public has 74% of the money and 65% of the wagers on the Chiefs to cover. Those team totals sit at KC 28.5 and LA 24.5.
One more thing to consider is that the Chargers Coach Staley has a propensity for going for it on fourth down (LA Times article on his fourth down play calling), and with the starting kicker out for the Chiefs they may very well end up feeling the same way. As I look back last year I had the early game wrong between these two and the late game exact score right between these two. This year the key stats I have in my decision are right here : 1) The Kansas City Chiefs are 45-3 with Patrick Mahomes when allowing <30 points all-time. 2nd is Mahomes September record of 12-2, however while he is 5-2 vs. the Chargers, he is only 1-2 vs. them at Arrowhead Stadium. While this game won’t be determined most likely until the 4th quarter and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Chargers win outright I’m not sure that the Keenan Allen injury isn’t a bigger deal than the kicker out but we are likely in for a good game, my prediction is 31-23 Chiefs.