Dolphins vs. Bengals
Thursday Night Football has the Bengals now -3.5 hosting the undefeated Dolphins. The Dolphins fresh off an upset of Super Bowl and AFC East division favorites Buffalo. While the Dolphins may have the record coming in here it appears on the stats that their “weak spot” is the same as the Bengals strength. Last week Josh Allen went for 400 yards throwing and the previous week it was Lamar Jackson going for 318 at 11.8 yards per attempt. The Bengals may have the hype around Jamar Chase but they have 3 receivers who all see passes. Last week averaging 12 yards per catch, 8.3 vs. the Cowboys and 10.2 against the Steelers. This and the homefield advantage of playing at home on the short week is why the Bengals are favored here. The Bengals of course can’t lose the turnover battle like they did in week 1 and 2. The pressure may lead to sacks but if it leads to strip sacks or interceptions then it’ll be hard for the Bengals to win.
As for the Dolphins they had the Patriots who are not looking like a classic New England team, then they outscored Baltimore 28-3 in the 4th quarter against an injury depleted unit, and then last week it was a completely different secondary due to injury for Buffalo as well. Not only are they Bengals corners playing well but they are familiar with a strategy to slow Tyreke Hill as they played him late in the season last year and again in the AFC Championship game.
Betting strategy for this game for me is to try to get the Bengals at even money on live bet. However if they take off like they did against the Jets then 3.5 might be the best number you see. I think the Dolphins will stay in this one a while and if they go up by a field goal or 4 at least at any time then you will see this thing at even money. If your not in a live bet situation my prediction is 28-23 Bengals. Bengals -3.5