This week is new look for the games number wise, with 6 games having numbers favored by 6 or more, 7 before adjustments. A lot of people like just taking the underdogs and that has worked a lot this year. Those are tough numbers to cover and I usually try to get at least a field goal adjusted on live bet if I can instead of laying a whole touchdown.
Browns vs. Ravens – Baltimore -6.5 as the Ravens look to get a stronghold on the AFC North. Number 1 vs. Number 7 rush attacks. The Achilles for both sides has been defense, 24th CLE and 26 BAL. For Cleveland several areas of concern defensively, they have allowed 179.3 per game last 3 games on the ground. Baltimore has run for 176 on the ground the last 3 weeks, 155.7 all together. Cleveland running for 176 a game on the ground, leading the NFL. While the Ravens have given up 4.5 a carry they are 8th in the league at 103.8 per game allowed on the ground. Last week the Patriots really got ahold of them and it was a bad matchup, they play Baltimore twice a year though. Last year they won once and lost by 6 in the two games against Baltimore. 75% of the consensus on the Ravens and but they have some key guys questionable on both sides of the ball including Andrews. My prediction 23-17 Baltimore. Browns +6.5
Buccaneers vs. Panthers – Tampa Bay -13 as once again who saw Pittsburgh winning the game outright even Tampa didn’t cover. Even on the road in Charlotte it may be like some home cooking for Brady. He has put up 41, 32, 46 and 31 since he joined Tampa Bay vs. the Panthers. All four of those games they would’ve covered the 13. Yea last week once again if you tried to lay the big spread it was a loss. This week in this game? The Panthers haven’t been getting a lot of sacks, if Brady isn’t getting hit then it’ll be a big win. 28-13 Tampa Bay – Buccaneers -13
Falcons vs. Bengals – Bengals -6.5 – Last week the Bengals really got their passing attack going and when they have three WR this good it can cause a mismatch. Atlanta is 31st in the league in pass defense at 281 a game. Cincinnati 248 a game thus far and 62 % of the time the Bengals have called a pass to this point. Atlanta on the other hand runs the ball 2nd most in the league. Last week they faced a beat up 49ers defense but they controlled the line of scrimmage and of course 3 turnovers by the 49ers helped them out. The Falcons do bring in the leagues only undefeated record ATS. What might the win and cover come down to? The difference between the Bengals run defense 121 per game and the Falcons 165 a game on the ground. While the Falcons looked great last week if the Bengals were to get ahead I’m not sure they can throw and beat the Bengals secondary. My Prediction 27-20 Bengals. Cincinnati -6.5
Lions vs. Cowboys – Dallas -6.5, here we see the Cowboys face the leagues worst defense to this point. Dallas may try to open things up more against Detroit, even though they threw it 54% of the time with Rush at QB. The Lions have been decent on offense this year but at times this Cowboys defense has been a difference maker. With all the almost a touchdown spreads these need to win by a touchdown games may come down to what kind of coverage the coordinators are playing if they have say a 10 point lead, and of course if the underdog is ahead they your not covering -6.5. My prediction 32-20 Dallas, Cowboys -6.5
Giants vs. Jaguars – Jacksonville -3 as they sit 2-4 facing the 5-1 Giants. The strength of the Jaguars defense is in stopping the run 89.3 per game 3rd in the league. Stopping the run is the Giants weak spot, 144 per game. The Giants 4th in the run and the Jags are 9th. The Giants only pass the ball 48% of the time and even then Barkley sees the most attempts running and is the most targeted with passes. As for the Jags their key will be taking care of the ball. The Giants do rush a lot and if they are to pull an “upset” it will likely include a turnover from QB pressure. This one is just as the spread says even game give a slight advantage for home field. Even with the Giants keeping on winning its been surprising, but for some reason I think the Jags will slow the run, My prediction 24-20 Jaguars. Jacksonville -3.
Colts vs. Titans – Titans -2.5 here, fresh off a bye week where Vrabel is 4-0 after the bye week. This game is for first place in the AFC South. This Colts team has actually developed with Ryan at QB, they threw the ball 58 times last week. They were without Taylor then, but he is back now. He was held to 42 yards in the first matchup a few weeks ago. This series has now shifted to 4 in row for the Titans, prior to that the Colts had taken 4 of 5. You can look for the Colts to attack with the pass today, the Titans allowing a league worst 287 per game in the air. Ryan’s stat line 27/37 for 356 yards 9.6 per completion with 2 TD and 1 INT. That may be one area they have an advantage. An interception and a fumble lost from Ryan as well as a fumble lost from Taylor as well as a first quarter 14 point deficit was what decided the first game. Henry will surely get his yards, but Tannehill and the pass game is at 175 per game so far. I think the Colts find a way to win today. My prediction 20-17 Colts. Indianapolis +2.5
Packers vs. Commanders – Packers -4.5, Rodgers and the Pack look to get things back on track. Before anything else the Packers cannot win if they make the same special teams errors they did last week. That’s what happened in the playoffs last year vs. SF and last week it was self created obstacles in the punt and field goal team mistakes. If I’m not mistaken it may be two weeks in a row that a team has got a hand on a Crosby field goal attempt. The Packers also lost Cobb and that goes to a unit where they really haven’t been great this year. The good news for them is that the run defense of DC might allow for a big day for Dillon and Jones on the ground, they are giving up 131 a game that’s 25th. The same thing goes for the Commanders as the only thing worse than their run D is the Packers run defense 133 a game 27th in the league. The Commanders may not really be in a position to exploit that as they throw 64% of the time. The other story to this game is Heinicke getting the start, he is 7-9 for his career, but a few times last year specifically the Tampa Bay game they couldn’t get him off the field. 76% of the money on the Packers to cover here. After the past two weeks I’m just not sure about how Rodgers is clicking with the receivers, my prediction 23-20 Packers. Washington +4.5
Jets vs. Broncos– Jets -2 and look as things seemed to have just “gone their way” they get the Broncos with no Wilson today. At that rate I’ll take the Jets and be surprised if they lose. My prediction 16-13 Jets. New York -2
Texans vs. Raiders – Raiders -7 – Las Vegas may still be a playoff team even sitting at 1-4. Adams reason for frustration? A collision, one foot away from putting the Chiefs away in the last minute and a damn camera man in the way. Could be a big day for Jacobs on the the ground here, 164 a game is what Houston allows on the ground. The question may be does that come with the Raiders doing the “Bill Cowher, get up by ten and lean on the clock” The Raiders seem like a sure winner here, but when you look at like the Arizona game, are they going to care about stopping the Texans if there is what seems like a meaningless touchdown? The Texans surprisingly giving up only 19 a game. They are giving up 249 a game passing, slightly better than the Raiders pass D. The problem with Houston is they are 2nd to last in 3rd down conversions. Also the matchup with Rock Ya-Sin against Cooks as he has been the key addition to the Raiders secondary and you would expect the Raiders to make someone else beat you. This has all the makings of what could be a big win for the Raiders as they have a schedule that could have them at 4-4. Hope the coverage with the lead doesn’t look like it did against the Cardinals but my prediction 34-23 Raiders(right there where it may be up 11 and if they give up a touchdown and the Texans close the lead to 4 then that may be the stress of the day with 6 games giving up 6 or more. Raiders -7
Chiefs vs. 49ers – KC -1 It’s a Super Bowl rematch of a game where really only 1 quarter went the Chiefs way. It was a ten point lead prior to two fourth quarter TDs. In that we see the same coaching staff and team leaders a few years later. The big McCaffery trade brings him to play for the son of the coach who’s father coached his father to two Super Bowl wins in Denver. Before we get too far into things what went wrong last week in Atlanta was the stretch where they had the fumble returned punt for TD and then an INT on the next possession. That section of the game was too much to overcome and they had a lot of guys out on defense. Ward is questionable and Armstead is out up front for them, but they get Bosa back. The Chiefs really only lost by turnover after what would’ve been a touchdown in the first quarter. This is a great one to watch and if your betting you just pick your side and roll with it. Both these are top 4 run defenses. San Francisco also 2nd in passing allowed but is Ward 100 % and Hufanga and Verrett are on the injury report as well. My prediction 29-24 Chiefs. Kansas City -4.5
Seahawks vs. Chargers – Chargers -4.5, The Chargers sometimes look like they should beat teams by more than they do. They get back Allen at WR. They are already throwing it for 280 a game and Herbert gets the ball to everyone. Seattle gives up 245 a game in the air, they give up 165 on the ground. The Chargers have to be liking the matchup of their offense vs. Seattle. The teams the Seahawks have beat aren’t exactly the quality of teams at the top of the AFC which is where the Chargers sit. Geno Smith is playing great right now. The Chargers allowing 224 in the air, Seattle throwing for 231. That’s about what you can expect. Other than the Lions and Saints who are both letting up a lot of points the Seahawks really haven’t been lighting the scoreboard. The line move there Geno Smiths ATS record is great, especially as underdog. My prediction 29-23 Chargers. Los Angeles -4.5
Steelers vs. Dolphins – Miami -7 The Steelers are a hard team to get a read on. They are and will continue to be big underdogs this year. The Dolphins have 1 win by that much this year. The story here is Tua back from concussion, and will be able to stay on the field. The more you get a concussion the more likely you are to have another one. Then there is Coach Flores now on the Pittsburgh staff, beyond the lawsuit he brings a familiarity with the roster of the Dolphins. Twice this year have the Steelers lost by more than 7, 4 times they have either won or kept it closer than that. The Steelers defense as usual will have to be great as both these receivers went over a hundred last week with Bridgewater. My prediction 30-24 Dolphins, Pittsburgh +7.
As Always Best of Luck and Enjoy your Sunday