Denver vs. Jacksonville 9:30 AM From London – Jaguars -2.5 Denver get Wilson back at QB and they have struggled all season they are 32nd in PPG and 31 in third down conversions. Denver averaging 219 on the ground compared to 238 given up by the Jacksonville D this year, so you should expect mid 200’s passing. The strong point for Denver thus far is the defense, even when they have bended they haven’t broken, first in the league in Red Zone Scoring Defense. For Jacksonville they are 10th in passing and 7th in run offense. Lawrence has greatly improved the TD to INT ratio as well. 233 a game passing for the Jags and he will throwing into the teeth of what has been the 2nd best pass defense at 173 per game given up. The Jets were able to run the ball and Jacksonville is running for 137 a game. After seeing what I did in that game the Broncos would’ve won if they had Wilson playing. With the slow start for the Broncos and with playoff expectations the pressure to win this game that preseason most all Bronco fans would’ve called a win. My other question from last weeks game is the status of Gordon at RB, he lead the team last week but only 11 carries and the announcers kept repeating why is Gordon not in at tailback. My prediction 23-20 Broncos. Denver +2.5
Carolina vs. Atlanta – Atlanta -4 Last week the Panthers actually looked like a group of guys getting their only opportunities after other guys were traded and injured. Hubbard and Foreman were able to run all day against Tampa, but one key factor is Hubbard is out as he was injured late in the win over the Bucs. PJ Walker played good enough he is getting another go at this. It says on ESPN that Mayfield is Active here. They will meet a 5th in NFL run defense but the Falcons dead last in defending the pass. If the Panthers are going to stay in this game its with the pass and some experts aren’t sure if the matchup DJ Moore is where the Panthers most attempts will be and the attention of a beat up ATL secondary as Terrell and Hawkins are both expected to be out. With Atlanta the key is their run game and they lean on it heavy, Atlanta 2nd in the league in percent of run plays. Carolina 21st in stopping the run. Atlanta running for 156.9 per game. With Pitts and London getting the most targets when they do pass the ball. These two teams have a habit the past two years of splitting and one winning on the road as the Panthers have won the last two games in Atlanta. I’ve seen this run game could get on the Panthers like the 49ers did 29 carries for 153 and that could present problems. This is just one game and right now the margins of victory in this series haven’t been close the last as in only one game 3 pts or closer by winning margin once in last 10 meetings. My prediction 27-21 Falcons. Atlanta -4
Chicago vs. Dallas – Dallas -10 -Dallas taking in 61 % of consensus money to cover this big number. Dallas likely to be without Elliot as he is doubtful. Dallas even with Rush at QB was slightly more pass than run and while Pollard has been effective we might see more pass from Dallas here. The Bears bring 3rd best pass defense allowing 180 a game. Dallas gives up 120 a game on the ground, the Bears run almost 60% of the time for a league leading 180 yards a game. While I do think Dallas wins this game laying -10 points sometimes is hazardous. My prediction 24-16 Dallas. Chicago +10
Steelers vs. Eagles – Philadelphia -10.5 and still consensus 86% of the money and 79% of the tickets. The Eagles have been the best in the league so far and they do it the trenches. They bring in Quinn on the trade and bring more depth on the the D front. The Eagles are still at the top of league in percent of running plays and with Brown and Smith they look much improved the guys who got beat up by the Bucs in the playoffs last year. Once again we see the Steelers getting a big number in the spread. They go up against one of the best secondary giving up 188 a game in the air. They are 12th run defense. Pittsburgh has been running for 87 throwing for 210 and scoring only 15(11 the last 3 games) This game will likely be Philly with a lead and how much will they win by. The Eagles scoring 26.8 per game. The bad news for Pittsburgh is they have allowed 275 in the air that’s 29th in the league. While the Steelers may find a way to cover here my gut tells me the Eagles can cover if they want to, my prediction 34-16 Eagles, Philadelphia -10.5
Patriots vs. Jets – New England -2.5 – I go no further here than the head to head record.. how about 14-1 Patriots and this game is where we see if the Jets are for real because New York has had a few great breaks their way as to who is starting on the opponent, but if they beat New England in a division game then it would mean a lot to them. I’ve got to see it to believe it, my prediction 27-17 Patriots. New England -2.5
Dolphins vs. Lions – Miami -3.5 – Miami 24.5 in games started by Tua this year. The Lions averaging 24.3 a game and Dolphins letting up 23.6 a game. These teams 24 and 22 against the pass. The Lions get Swift back and that may help Goff a bit. Detroit’s “weakness” is their run defense, but this Miami team may not be suited to exploit that as they only run 85 a game so far. My prediction 27-24 Dolphins. Lions +3.5
Cardinals vs. Vikings – Minnesota -3.5 Not sense they were the St. Louis Cardinals has this franchise gone to Minnesota and left with a win. Last game even though they won because of the two pick 6’s there was a big improvement having Hopkins back with 10 catches. Last week was the first for Murray with a rating above 100, it also gets the other wide receivers open. These teams 28 and 25th defending the pass. Last September these two teams went down to a missed would be winning field goal by the Vikings, 34-33 Arizona won. The thing with this game is the Cardinals have a chance to win, and if they don’t win they could easily hold it to a field goal or less… and if they the points just like up and Minnesota wins by 4 or more then it just wasn’t the Cardinals day. They won’t be replaying last years game where there was 77 points but at 49 I’ll take the OVER. The consensus has this one rated for an upset 67 % ATS on Arizona and money line +162 Arizona with 61% of the money on them for the upset. I think the Vikings keep up the winning streak at home even though it has nothing to do with all those other years games. My prediction 34-29 Vikings. Minnesota -3.5
Raiders vs. Saints – Las Vegas -1 – Two teams in the top 10 in the league in scoring matchup here. The Saints come in still banged up without the two starting WR and now without Latimore at CB. When facing the Raiders the corner injury may be the bigger problem. Who is gonna stop Adams and that has a trickle down effect on the rest of the Raiders offense having more space. Raiders have been running 128 a game and throwing 238. The Saints defense has given up 30 in the last 3 games. They have been scoring 25 a game. The Saints have been able to move the ball on everyone and as long as they don’t have the turnovers they will probably be in this game. I still see the Raiders getting close to 30 points in this one. My prediction 27-24. Raiders. Las Vegas -1.
Titans vs. Texans – Tennessee -2.5 – Willis starts for the injured Tannehill here. Last year the Texans won once and lost by 3 in the other game to the Titans. Haven’t seen Willis here no one has this is his first start. The Titans will likely lean on Henry’s success against them. We’ll see what the Titans get done with Willis but my prediction is 23-17 Texans – Houston +2.5
Giants vs. Seahawks – Seattle -3 – Both these teams have outplayed expectations this year. Some injuries here may be difference makers. The Giants have some offensive line starters out today. The Seahawks not likely to have Metcalf. You can expect to see the run a lot in this one, as Walker looks like he may a put the team on his back if all else fails type of back. They haven’t had to worry about that as Smith has made the most out of being a starter as a veteran, 11 Td 3 INT completing 70 percent of his passes. NY gives up the highest YPC in the NFL. These teams both bottom of the league in run defense 28th and 29th. We will see but I think injuries may slow the Giants. My prediction 25-21 Seahawks. Seattle -3.
49ers vs. Rams – San Francisco -1 – The Matchup has gone 7-3 last 10 the way of the 49ers. The 49ers don’t have Samuel today. They do have some injuries to the defensive front 7 as well. The Rams 4-2 under McVay after a bye week. They come in without any injuries to note. Defense is what both these teams are built on 3rd and 5th in total defense. Both top 10 vs. the pass. Both top 9 vs. the run. They played a few weeks ago 24-9 the 49ers way. These two teams know what the other wants to do for the most part. The Rams sit 31st in offense they are 11th in passing and 31st in rush offense. I expect this one see the Rams play much better but my prediction is 20 -17 49ers. San Francisco -1
Commanders vs. Colts – Indianapolis – 3. Ehlinger gets the start for the Colts. Who knows how good he will be but we can probably expect a heavy dose of Taylor against the Washington 16th ranked run defense. For me I’ll just take the points and if the new QB is better than expected then I’ll be wrong. My prediction 18-16 Commanders – Washington +3.
Packers vs. Bills – Buffalo – 11.5 – Buffalo # 1 play action offense vs. Green Bay 28th in play action defense. Deep Passing Buffalo #1 vs. Green Bay #17. Green Bay for all the struggles they have the number one pass yard defense at 168.9 per game. The reason for the big line here is the Packers have no one at WR that started last year and to make it worse where they would love to turn to the run heavy here and keep Allen off the field Buffalo run defense 76 yards per game allowed. I know the consensus is 72% on the Bills even at -11. The Packers are however gonna be a on mission to play better after the recent struggles. The reason for the high line is half of the Buffalo area put their paycheck on the Bills. So its Bills Mafia or Rodgers as this is the largest Vegas has ever made him an underdog. They still have to play a game and I’m ok winning or losing with Rodgers +11.5. My prediction 30-20 Bills. Green Bay +11.5
As Always Best of Luck and Enjoy your Sunday