The story lines for the Super Bowl, Andy Reid vs the Eagles and the city of Philadelphia. First Super Bowl with
two african american quarterbacks, Mahomes in his 3rd Super Bowl. This is one of those games where gamblers
may have their picks and reasons but this one could go either way.
Why would one pick the Eagles? There have been two matchups of number 1 pass defense vs. number 1 pass offense,
both were blowout wins for the number 1 pass defense. The Eagles bring the leagues most physical defensive front,
four men with 11 sacks for the season. If those guys get tired they have Quinn and Suh waiting, both
of whom used to take a double team to block. The experts say the “weak spot” on the KC o-line is right guard, lining
up across from him is Haason Reddick, which is why he is -167 to get a sack.
I would expect the Chiefs to shift help to that side and maybe look at Fletcher Cox +205 or Brandon Graham +154 to
get a sack.
My key matchup for the Eagles to win – AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith at Wide Reciever against a very young group of
corners for the Chiefs, thats McDuffie and Watson both rookies who are going to be tested. If your looking at player
props we see AJ Brown at 72.5, DeVonta Smith at 65.5, Dallas Goedert at 50.5, Miles Sanders over 4.5 and Kenneth Gainwell at 13.5. With
everyone knowing the Eagles are a run team, but I would expect to see medium range passes to all of this group
throughout the game. Gainwell had 6 catches for 58 yards and Sanders 3 catches for 34 yards
in the 2021 matchup, to go along with Devonta Smith 122 yards, Ertz 60 and Goedert 56.
We saw ball distribution Hurts threw for 387 in that one. Also Hurts ran for 47 so
not much value in his run yards total its real close. But it appears to be value in any
of the Eagles recievers yards totals.
The Eagles corners are the strength of their defense, holding teams to 170 a game for the year. This group did see
him last year, Mahomes went for 278 yards 5TD and 1 INT in a 42-30 win. While we think they will pressure Mahomes
they only hit him 4 times and got 1 sack in that one. Before you get to thinking 72 points again, there were 28
4th quarter point in that one. In Super Bowls we haven’t seen a 4th that up and down the field.
Looking at how that game went last year I can see all those past Super Bowl situational stats, 71 percent off the
early money on the Eagles and I just think. The thing that made Brady able to win so much was that he kept
making the big game. While Mahomes may be near perfect in September, how will his record be in February?
In the 2021 game it was Tyreke Hill who went for 186 yards, Kelce was held to minimal 4 catches for 23 yards.
Kelce’s yard total at 81.5 we could see him step up but that is the one guy the Eagles
took away in the 2021 game and they may key on him here. The other wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster is
at 38.5, Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 35.5 and Kadarius Toney at 30.5. None of those three
were in that game last year but Mahomes has distributed the ball well this year and those
are certainly makable numbers when you’ve got him at QB.
The one “weak spot” of that Eagles defense is right where Coach Reid has always been at the top of NFL.. the
screen pass game and passes to running back. Jerick McKinnon (KC) over 22.5 receiving yards, he averaged 30.l per game
this year.
As far as the side play and total play I don’t think there is a clear cut best play.
My initial thought was KC and the under. But after looking at the 2021 game I scared
myself right off that under. When I see how the number 1 pass D vs number 1 pass
offense has been in the past, both 30 point victories for the number 1 pass d and I
almost scared myself out of betting completely. I believe the team that really
wants to control how many possessions the other side gets is the Chiefs. Their quarter
to watch has been the 2nd quarter, they have ten points in each of the first two 2nd quarters.
The Eagles have put up 14 in both their 2nd quarters this post season and haven’t had to
play a full game both 38-7 and 31-7 and if history comes through again then a large victory
may be happens. The reason I’m not taking the number 1 pass defense is this team put
up 42 last season in Philadelphia, Andy Reid has such a history with Philadelphia where
you know he has every bit of motivation to want to beat them and as Brady moves to the
announcers booth the most likely guy to play in that many Super Bowls at this point is
Mahomes, he is 1-1 and I would expect they put up more than 9 points in this one.
That being said I go with my gut
my prediction, 27-20 Chiefs.
As Always Best of Luck and Enjoy Your Super Bowl