The line is -1.5 Dallas, bets going 50/50. The number 2 vs. 4 defense in a week dominated by the UNDER. These two teams are both capable of winning. With the first loss of Philly yesterday let me remind you that the NFC East hasn’t had a repeat champion in a long time, (2005). Both these teams are capable of dethroning last years Super Bowl team respectively in their own division. Dallas gets a slight advantage here on the fact that home teams are -3 as even game so Dallas would be -4.5 at home in this matchup.
Both these teams are 25th and 28th offensives, and 2nd vs 4th defense. We see two interesting things as far as line movement vs. consensus here. That is a move from 47 to 50.5 despite 71% consensus that “Pro” money going on the under. I believe that adjustment is a decoy intended to carrot stick the public towards the over with the big market teams, and super star QBs on both sides. The teams scoring is 5th and 6th in the NFL, Dallas 26.8, LAC 27.5. with Dallas giving up 16 a game, LAC 26 per game. While Dallas would I’m sure love to keep the Chargers under 20 that my be unrealistic depending on what Dallas defense shows up as Arizona and SF games weren’t the best showing and the three wins have been under 20 for holding the opp. However when you look at the strength of those 4 games, the Jets have to play that low scoring type of game and the 49ers demolished them. A lot of people are calling to that, “safest place after a plane crash theory” here with them siding with the Cowboys.
I haven’t convinced myself the Cowboys are the best choice for this game either here is why – The Chargers come in off the early bye week and they have already had their 0-2 down time and bounced back from it. The Bolts took a really good Dolphins team to a 36-34 Chargers loss, the visit to Tennessee, where the Titans are a different animal and they could ‘ve won both those games and been sitting at 4-0 coming off a bye week and then the line, the narrative and the total outlook of their range of possibilities would be completely different.
Since I can mathematically add up and see this game possibly getting over the total, as well as the Total being by far now after adjustments the highest total of the week, 2nd highest was last nights 14-9 game that was 48.5. I’m then going to say the book maker can’t have all UNDER hits as this week was 12-2 for UNDER coming through but I think this was both a MNF game and the highest total because it’s going OVER just to keep the guys betting honest.
I’m not sure there is anything but a coin toss in choosing a side here and I’m not sure that either side has an advantage in this one. The Cowboys trying to shuffle things with injuries here and I’m actually leaning towards the home team in this one as they have 6 roster moves. The Chargers are actually putting out their own narrative calling this a ,“Chance To Make A Statement on MNF”
My confidence level is not through the roof but my prediction is 27-24 Chargers,
277: NFL: Cowboys OV o50½+101
278: NFL: Chargers +1½-108
Reference:
(2023). NFC East – Wikipedia. Wikipedia.com. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFC_East
NFL (2023). Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers 2023 REG 6. NFL.com. https://www.nfl.com/games/cowboys-at-chargers-2023-reg-6?active-tab=highlights
NFL (2023). Cowboys announce six roster moves ahead of MNF. DallasCowboys.com. https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/cowboys-announce-six-roster-moves-ahead-of-mnf
NFL (2023). 5 Takeaways : Final Thoughts – Bolts have a chance to make a statement on MNF. Chargers.com. https://www.chargers.com/news/chargers-cowboys-game-preview-austin-ekeler-mnf