First off let me make it clear that picking these college basketball games is very difficult due to not having seen all the teams play myself. I apologize if the win percentage is no where around where it was for the NFL. I really apologize for the opening night 0-2 that was just a sign of not being familiar enough with the teams so it happens. There’s a lot of games in the tournament here so we’ll see how the rest of it goes.
Thursday
Wagner vs. UNC -25 at 79% Consensus – UNC went to the Final Four two years ago, missed the tournament last year and looks to be a veteran team who should be hungry for a deep run. 6-1 this year after a loss for UNC this year. While they are capable this is a huge spread. Wagners defense looked good but will they have the bodies to keep that defense up 40 minutes against the one seed. While I recommend waiting to get a better number on live bet my pick here is the Tar Heels -25, game in Charlotte NC. UNC -25
Tennessee U vs. St. Peters UT -21.5 67% for the Vols who are 2-3 ATS when the line is 21 or more this year. St. Peters is 15-7 are 20-11 ATS here. This is a rough one because you have to feel like the Vols pull the win here. The Peacocks right behind Tennessee in what I think to be the key stat 3 point defense at 31.5 % for the year. Stopping Knecht will be the key as he has carried UT all season. I’m going to go against the consensus here and just take the points as teams from the MAAC usually put a good showing up even though Tennessee could cover with ease if the 3’s are going in. St. Peters +21.5
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State Battle of MSU’s Michigan State -1 47% This game might be a toss up as well as Michigan State is 2-0 under Izzo in 8-9 seed games. They shoot the three 3rd best in the Big Ten. That will again be the key here as Mississippi State is 6th in the nation at 29.4% allowed from 3. The other advantage is Smith and the front court for the Bulldogs. Normally I wouldn’t pick against the Spartans in the situation but I’ve watched quite a bit of Mississippi State lately. Mississippi State +1
Colorado State vs. Texas -2.5 70% Another toss up game as this one features two of the best point guards in the nation. The Rams looked really good in the opening round in making me wrong big time. Stevens and CSU are 9th in the nation in two point field goal percentage allowed despite having an “small ball lineup.” He has a matchup up vs. Abmas previously (Oral Roberts) that went CSU’s way but Texas has a much better supporting cast around Abmas. This game is truly a toss up but I’m going to go with the team that comes in hot. Colorado State +2.5
NC State vs. Texas Tech -5 54% You see it in the consensus this game could go either way as Texas Tech gets a red hot NC State team who had to win the ACC Tournament to get in and did. The rebounding battle could be the key here along with questions of injuries for Texas Tech. When unsure here I’m going to go with the underdog as they appear to be taking some early action for an outright upset. NC State +5
Oakland vs. Kentucky -13.5 71% Oaklands Coach Kampe says this is the best possible matchup his team could face against his old friend John Calipari. The Wildcats have a young talented team that has a lot of us in the Bluegrass State thinking big things with how well they have shot the three this year. The line on this game at 13.5 which is tight in line with the teams points per game 89 for UK 76 for Oakland. UK is 5-7 when favored by 13.5 or more, Oakland 3-1 when underdogs by that much. UK number 1 in the country behind the 3 point line, Oakland 230th in 3 point defense. The Wildcats will be looking to rebound after the early loss in SEC tourney to Texas A&M. I always hate laying the big number with the Wildcats but they may be able to cover here. I would expect Oakland to hang around a while so you may be able to get a live bet discount because the Wildcats lines get inflated due to so much action but my pick is UK -13.5
Oregon vs. South Carolina – 1 51% South Carolina overachievers or just underestimated ? They face the Pac-12 Champs from Oregon in what could go either way. No one really expected South Carolina to be as good as they were this year in what I think will prove to be a very good SEC group this year. One thing to consider is guard play however and that is where the Ducks bring a veteran duo. This may be the difference as guard play determines many games. BPI, ESPN and the oddsmakers favor the Gamecocks. The Ducks the 11 seed here, but the question is how good is the Pac-12 really? I’ll make my decision off the backcourt strength even though I have underestimated the south’s USC all year and been wrong. With a recommendation of pick your team ahead of time and you should be able to get a few insurance points on live bet. Oregon +1
Akron vs. Creighton – 12.5 44% The Blue Jays face the MAC champs here in what on the surface appears to be a talent advantage for Creighton. However the Zips are 14th in 3pt percentage allowed and they have one of the best rebounders in the country. Plus Akron has had a little March Magic just to get here already. For the Blue Jays how do they handle being the double digit favorite. They are one of the few teams who have beat UCONN and many expect a win for Creighton. I’ll take the dog here and the points even though it would surprise me none if it was a twenty point win for Creighton. Akron +12.5
McNeese State vs. Gonzaga -6.5 35% Is Gonzaga back in the Cinderella role or does the slipper fit McNeese St. Both teams coming in playing their best at the right time. The Zags jump back was fueled by coming to Lexington and beating the Wildcats a game I watched at the mental health ward from Good Samaritan Hospital. They were impressive in that game and might be an outside the top tier team who could have elite eight or better in their future. McNeese St has won 11 in a row and holds opponents to 64 per game scoring 78 per game. This is a step up in competition, the Zags holding opponents to 69 per game scoring 83.6 per contest. The Zags not catching the early consensus but they get a hot mid major team. That used to be the Zags but now they most likely have several NBA players on the squad. While I would say try to get number on live bet with the favorite or take the points ahead of time because if they are to cover it may come down to free throws down the stretch. This is a tough call but I’ll pick the Zags here Gonzaga -6.5
Samford vs. Kansas – 7 21% Short handed Kansas will surely be coming in to put up a better performance than they did against a hungry team in the Big 12 tournament. They get the Samford Bulldogs who shoot very well from behind the arc, 7th in the country are the “underdog” but the heavy consensus favorite. This is a major step up in competition however and had McCullers been in the lineup where would we have this Kansas team projections. They do get Dickinson back and after the way things went against the Bearcats in their last game I would expect this to not be a sleep walking Kansas team. 79 % of the early consensus on the Samford Bulldogs, I might pick up Kansas on live bet here if Samford doesn’t look to be hitting three’s in rhythm. The key may be how well the Jayhawks are focused after getting blown out. Samford lost to Purdue and VCU to start the year and they most likely lose to Kansas here. I won’t lay the -7 so does that mean take the points with the hot mid major team or try to get “my number” on the Jayhawks. For me its wait on live bet and see if the Jayhawks are able to control the paint. I’ll give you pick but its with little confidence Kansas -7
Nevada vs. Dayton – Nevada -1 82% This game may well decided at the free throw line. Nevada shoots almost 25 free throws per game, Dayton around 13 trips to the charity stripe. Almost sounds like a lot of free money for Nevada, but then there is the 3 point line where Dayton is a high volume threat with a big man that might be able to command a double team. If Nevada can’t defend the 3 and the big man it will lead to open looks for them Dayton 3rd in the nation in 3 point percentage, Nevada 36th in defending the trey. It’ll be interesting to see who is able to impose their pace of play, if the three’s are going in early it may be difficult for Nevada, but Nevada is 24-0 when leading at the half. Nevada has the big man against an undersized Dayton front court and they may inflict foul trouble in getting to the line that many times. That’s what I’ve learned from my research and I haven’t seen these teams enough to really get a good feel here. My pick is Nevada -1.
Long Beach State vs. Arizona – 20.5 77% – This is a pizza party game as that’s what the coaches did already. Rarely seen here a fired coach continues to coach. LBSU has the 7 footer in the middle and might bring a zone defense which has supposedly given Arizona some trouble lately. I don’t get to see either of these teams enough but obviously the Wildcats are the high powered heavy talent team needing a 21 point win. A blowout may be possible but I think I’ll pick LBSU +20.5
Duquesne vs. BYU -9 62% BYU- Mark Pope and BYU bring a 3 point offense the Wildcat faithful remember from the big mans championship days in Lexington. BYU’s Khalifa ranks second in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio as the junior has 114 assists to only 30 turnovers (3.80:1). A formula for success but wait the Dukes are 51 in defending the three and I watched them take out VCU they were playing very good in making me lose a bet there. Duquesne brings an 8 game win streak and hot backcourt duo themselves both A-10 second team. I made my decision when I saw this game was a matchup of a Pope and a king, as Lebron gave them all shoes in the Dukes side of things. That being said it would surprise me zero to see an outright upset here. Have they been crowned “Cinderella” we’ll find out. Of course if the Cougars get hot form the 3 it could be a long night for anyone against them. I’ll take the points with the Dukes who are in the tourney for the first time since 1977. Duquesne +9
Morehead State vs. Illinois – 11.5 The Big Ten Champs vs. the OVC Champs – I always want the Kentucky teams to do good but this one is an uphill battle as from a talent top to bottom the roster appears as if Illinois have secured high ground. The consensus gives an interesting slide 62% the Eagles way. They won the regular season and tournament and that talent gap may be the only advantage as the stats line these teams up pretty equal except ppg which Illinois 7th in the country against a strong defensive league at 84.4 per game. The Eagles are at 72 a game and there you have the spread right on the numbers. I’ll actually fade that consensus on Morehead State even though I’ll probably just lay off this one as Illinois is a team that could put up 100. My pick Illinois -11.5
Drake vs. Washington St. – – Drake the consensus 67% in a game that is pick em now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mid major win here. Contrasting styles here but WSU 3-3 in its last six but once again a bigger team that would like a slower pace. That’ll be the key for them. I haven’t seen these teams enough to make an informed pick but the only time I saw Drake they lost so I’ll give you a pick – WSU pick em
South Dakota St vs. Iowa St. -16 After the huge win against Houston this one has the feel of a potential let down game that sometimes follows that type of win. The Cyclones looked like world beaters. Haven’t seen SDSU yet this year but I’ve read and it appears maybe the line is too big in this one because they too put up a lot points. SDSU +16
As always Best of Luck and Enjoy Your Thursday