Thursday Night Football brings the Jaguars to face the Bengals. Cincinnati a -7.5, total at 45.5, -355 money line, Jags +285. Its been 3 learning experiences for Urban Meyer and his Jaguar team, even having to remind the press that, “Great quarterbacks have great teams around them. ” After starting out 0-3 SU, and 0-3 ATS they now come into this one being underdogs by a larger margin than anyone outside of the oddsmakers would’ve thought Cincy would be favored by this season. Lawrence comes in with 5 TDs and 7 Int, as well as 2 fumbles lost(tying him for 2nd amongst QB). The ground game has been 5.1 per carry, though 2 more fumbles for Robinson. They key for this team to move from losing and having teams cover the spread to being in the game within a possession and then everything that goes with that is eliminating turnovers as they are dead last in turnover differential -8. For a team that is in thought to have a “generational talent” at QB as those mistakes go away they will most likely be not going away as easy in their games.
These two teams met last year at the same stadium week 4, it was 33-25 Bengals. Burrow went for 300 and Mixon went for 150 on the ground. That was Burrow’s first win at QB. The Bengals are at 2-1 and they bring in the 8th ranked defense. The Bengals 17th in points per game have won but haven’t put up that 30 number yet. When I see that total at 45.5 I begin to think what about last years game? Well trying to have a win based on the last one doesn’t take into account adjustments and new coaches and players. Cincy averaging 22.7 and Jacksonville 17.7 per game. This one has the feel of one where that total I don’t see much advantage in making a play on. My prediction 23-20 Bengals.