Pittsburgh -7, 39.5 the total, 16.5(CHI), 23.5(PIT). Pittsburgh scoring 18.9 and allowing 20.3. Chicago scoring 15.4 allowing 24.4 per game. Four times has Roethlisberger seen the Bears : 7.7 YPA, 258.8 YPG, 5 TD and 3 INT, an 89.0 rating… the Steelers 1-3 in those games. Only 36 % of the time running for the Steelers, whereas Chicago now first in the league as far as percent of the time they are running at just over 50 % of the time. In general you would expect the play with those stats to make an under play, for me at 39.5 that is a number where if both teams are able to score it could just as easily get over that total.
For me even the -7 seems like the way things should go however with 3 double digit losses in a row the Bears are going to be coming with maximum effort to try to get things in the right direction. This being a once every three years matchup I could see this thing really depending on if the Bears are able to score to keep it a game. The Steelers are going to be able to score, but if the Bears can’t score we get the same situation we had in KC yesterday afternoon which was one team with a comfortable lead and an under with a possibility of a backdoor cover type situation. However I think if Chicago shows signs of a fight on the scoreboard then this thing could easily get over that total and still have the Steelers ahead with chance of a backdoor cover.
My prediction 26-17 Steelers