Patriots -1 as first place in the AFC East is on the line. Josh Allen a 2-4 record vs. the Patriots, and the first matchup between these two had to be frustrating, 40 M.P.H. winds and the Bills trying to pass in that wind. Defensive games have not been good for the Bills this year, they are 0-4 when they score 16 or less. They have either blown out opponents or not won period, their last 15 wins have been by 10 or more points. They are 7-1 in games where they score 30 or more. The Bills have the number one total defense, allowing 17.4 points per game, the Patriots 3rd in total defense.
The big matchup in game one was the rush defense vs. the Patriots running backs, the Pats went for 222 yards on the ground running for 4.8 YPC. This matchup has been swept by one team or the other for the past 4 years. The Patriots will have their hands full as they kept the Bills to 10 points in the first matchup, Buffalo is averaging 28.1 for the season, 22.7 last three. We will likely see more than 3 pass attempts this time around and in reality there was the one play where some feel the safety over ran the coverage leading to the big run and that was the difference in game one.
With the way playoff positioning is in the AFC this might as well be a playoff game for the Bills, they went up to Foxboro and won 38-9 last year. This is a tough game and could go either way. My prediction 24-16 Bills.