This game opened at Baltimore -4.5 and after around 77 % of the early money coming in on the Ravens its been adjusted to -7, that is in part due to the early wagers and now we have the Zach Wilson injury so it may Joe Flacco vs. the team he won Super Bowl with. Some 75% of the early total plays are on the under 45 here. What we have here is the Ravens bringing in the run game vs. what was one of the worst run offenses here vs. the Jets who pass the 3rd most in the league last year against the Ravens who were last in the league in Team Opponent Passing Yards last year. The Ravens also a league worst 6 yards per play given up last year. They fired their defensive coordinator, bring in Kyle Hamilton from Notre Dame and used their first four picks on defense.
On the surface you can see for his career the Ravens have put up 28.2 per game with Lamar Jackson at QB. They trade Hollywood Brown and its likely to be what production can Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews at TE give them in the passing game. Baltimore was down to 43.63% rushing plays last year with injuries to Jackson, Dobbins and Edwards all of whom are now back. With the move to trade Brown you would expect they may want to revert to 2020 run % type of play calls where they ran 55% of the time. The Jets allowed 138 a game on the ground in 2021 and allowed 259 in the air a game last year. The Ravens have the obvious edge on paper here as far their offense vs. the Jets D. However the holes in the Ravens defense last year makes me concerned about laying 7 on the road.
Joe Flacco’s QB rating in limited playing time last year was 113. He thought he would’ve got the chance to compete for a starting role in Philly last year, he didn’t get that chance and ended up being traded back to the Jets where now with the Wilson injury in week 1 of the preseason he may get a chance. Flacco hasn’t won in Jets uniform, but his career stats still much more impressive than young Wilson, 231.8 per game, only more interceptions than TDs once in his career, 41,269 yards passing and an 84.2 passer rating.
As things sit currently we should see team totals start at 26 for Baltimore and 19 for the Jets. The Ravens for his career have scored 28.2 per game with Jackson at the helm. During Week 1 he has been winning by a margin of 29.75 and 42.75 points per game for him, with a 3-1 record, his only loss being in overtime last year in Las Vegas. The Jets and Flacco is what remains to be seen if they will be able to compete or if they are in for another long year. Flacco as a Jet has put 18.1 PPG (7 games, 0-7 and 14 TD and 8 INT), 2 passing TD on the board per game. (Less than his 23.4 per game in Baltimore and more than his 15.6 per game in Denver.)
While there is something that scared me about the Jets with Flacco at QB laying 7 on the road in week 1 and even if we see Wilson instead the Ravens secondary and if they play the way they did last year is a concern. One more thing to consider is last year the Ravens were 0-4 when favored by more than -4. Taking that into account the Jets have to show improvement on the field and on the scoreboard, as they played last year my prediction is 34-20 Ravens and I’m guessing the Ravens will be around mid 30’s here so whether they win or cover will be determined by the Jets ability to either A) Keep the Ravens in the 20’s or B) Exploit a secondary that was last in the league in yards allowed last year in order to outscore the Ravens. Like I said I’ll have to see it believe it from the Jets and with the history of the Ravens with Jackson at the helm in week 1 my prediction is 34-20 Ravens.