This game is what it looks like exactly PK an even matchup Pick EM as neither team has a decided “advantage” on paper or otherwise coming in to this matchup. The Bears 5th in team defense and 5th in run attack however they are 32nd in pass attack. The Commanders run defense last week held Derek Henry to 102 yards but that was at 3.8 YPC. The Bears pass protection has been suspect as well. They are averaging 17.2 per game and their two wins this year have come at Soldier Field where this one is being played.
The Commanders may be slightly better than their record shows. They were at the goal line with a chance to beat the Titans, who were last years number 1 seed in the AFC and will likely be a playoff team yet again. Wentz has been throwing around 256 per game, he’ll be facing a Bears D that allows less than 200 passing on average so far. However Rodgers went 234 with the Packers averaging 12.3 per catch, and Cousins went for 296 with the Vikings getting 9.7 per catch. The Giants, Houston and 49ers with Fields in a downpour week 1 really weren’t threats to beat you in the air.
The bets on this game are as you would expect them to be 52% of the tickets with 58% of the cash on the home team Thursday night. That total opened at 40 now sits at 38 with 55% of tickets and 53% of the cash on the over. Either way this thing goes it doesn’t look like and lob-sided action. This game doesn’t feel like a great one to bet on truthfully, and you may be able to get at least 3.5 to 5.5 with either side in live bet as touchdowns are scored. The Bears D and overall performance has been significantly better in the 2nd halves thus far. I give a slight lean towards the visiting Commanders. My prediction 22-16 Washington. Commanders PK