49ers vs. Falcons – These two have had a few regular season matchups the past few seasons, the 49ers side is pretty much the same as they really looked like they controlled both sides of the ball the entire game vs. Carolina. Whereas the Falcons come in as the only team undefeated ATS. That is why we see the Falcons get a little more respect as SF continues to open as big favorites even on the other coast. They do have a season ending injury to Ward a key piece in the secondary. Last year San Francisco put up 31 against this defense, and right now the other reason the defense has been looking good is the way they literally control the pace of the game on offense. With the OT injury we may see a few mistakes from a backup there but this is the same offense that has made it to the Super Bowl and had a big lead in the fourth.
For the Falcons to really compete they may need Pitts to be playing. The real concern with them is will they have the ability to run the ball with Patterson on IR. Last week they came back and covered but it was 21-0 before the Bucs kind of looked like they had the win and almost gave up an improbable comeback.
This is a tough game but for me in my mind the 49ers are the perennial playoff team and at this point look to be the favorite in the NFC West. My Prediction 26-19 49ers. San Francisco -4.5, of course I may attempt try and get it even on live bet, but if SF goes 14-0 or 10-0 then that number will be gone with the wind.
Patriots vs. Browns – Its Cleveland -2.5 with the total at 43 here. Things come full circle for Jacoby Brissett as he now faces Bill Belichick, way back in 2016 he started things going 2-1 for the Pats. Last years game we can pretty much disregard other than in being bulletin board material for Cleveland, it went 45-7 on a cold November day last year as the Browns had Case Keenum at QB and niether Chubb nor Hunt playing.
That being what it is last week the Patriots ran 35 times and threw it 21 times. We saw the defense looking tough as the Detroit only had 3.7 yards per rush and they got 6 hits on the QB last week. Damien Harris also out for this one but as a team they ran for 176 at 5.0 yards per carry. If they are able to control the line of scrimmage it will be the defenses focus to stop the run. Zappe didn’t get hit at all last week, but unlike the Lions this Browns secondary may be where their strength is, 14th in the league at 215 per game. The “weak spot” to this Browns defense thus far is the run defense, 28th in the league at 128.8 and the last three games 181.3. The coaching matchup is an interesting one in that the Patriots developed Brissett and may know exactly how will react to certain coverages or pre snap looks. If the Patriots are to win it’ll likely be due the ability to win that chess match and slow the run.
After last week I’m just not picking against the Patriots right now, I’ll take it as a loss if they lose but I saw last week they are entering a stretch of games which they considerable the games they should win. As last year they ended up reeling of about 7 wins in the middle of the year. ESPN index has this one 75.3% for the Browns, but my prediction is 23-17 Patriots. New England +2.5
Bengals vs. Saints – Cincinnati on the road as -2.5 favorite- The Story is Joe Burrow returning to the Super Dome where he put on an All-World display in the CFP Championship game, but also the Saints start Andy Dalton, the Bengals former franchise QB. Though things went south as they just couldn’t keep receivers on the field with Dalton and never ran the ball consistently but still managed several playoff appearances and has a 2-0 record since his departure vs. the Bengals.
Saints allowing 128.1 Passer Rating on deep passes but for the year they rank 12th at 211 per game given up. They did however give up a lot of yard to Geno Smith. The keys for the Bengals will be keeping Burrow on his feet and his ability to hit more than one receiver as Higgins is questionable. Last week that hurt them at Baltimore even with Hurst picking up the slack. When you have Chase, Higgins, Boyd and then Hurst from TE and Perine and Mixon out of the backfield then Burrow truly has a trunk full of weapons.
Bengals D allowed 5.5 YPC to Baltimore run attack and if there is one time when the Saints really actually seem dangerous it is strangely enough Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara in the backfield. And from the look of things right now it says Micheal Thomas and Jarvis Landry are expected to be out. That may be off as it has Winston listed as Questionable. My prediction 27-23 Bengals. Cincinnati -2.5
Jaguars vs. Colts – Just as the last 8 meetings in Jacksonville have gone the way of the Jags, the Colts have won the last 4 at home in this matchup. My prediction 23-20 Colts. Indianapolis -1.5
Vikings vs. Dolphins – Bridgewater listed as the backup for the rookie here. The story likely ends up being him getting a shot to QB his hometown team against the team that drafted him here. Until then I guess we will see the Dolphins try to get in the playmakers hands any way they can. If they bring in Teddy they may change the forecast of this one, but as things go the Vikings are playing good football right now. If you didn’t watch last weeks game they climbed to 21-0 and rested on there until the Bears made a game of it. My prediction 24-20 Vikings. Vikings -3.
Jets vs. Packers – Green Bay back home against the Jets. The past few weeks these big spreads have all ended up going the way of the underdogs. I think the Pack will be in the mood to get things back on track against the Jets in front on the home crowd. From my point of view in last weeks game the things that slowed them down 2nd half were the active hands on the Giants D-line and the play call that went one sided pass heavy in the 2nd half. Either way my prediction 30-20 Packers – Green Bay -7.5
Buccaneers vs. Steelers – Tampa likely to be able to pass the ball there is now injuries to Fitzpatrick and Witherspoon and Sutton in the Steelers secondary. With it looking like Julio Jones being the only weapon not at Brady’s disposal today the question here is will the Steelers be able to cover the number? At that rate even though I’ve lost every big spread I’ve tried to cover the past few weeks I’ve got to say my prediction is 34-17 Buccaneers. Tampa Bay -9.5
Ravens vs. Giants – The games current top two runners to watch Lamar Jackson vs. Saquon Barkley. The Ravens allowing 5.0 per carry for the year and allowed 4.8 to the Bengals last game, Barkley averaging 5.5 per carry. Both teams run the ball from the QB spot as well. Giants are 31st in passing so far, but 3rd in rushing. The other thing that sticks out when you watch the Giants this year is 40% of the time they bring a blitz or pressure from somewhere, and with that you get what has looked to be to be the most active hands at blocking and deflecting passes. That is what got Rodgers last week and over the season it will cause a lot of incompletions and a few interceptions. The Ravens have seen pass attack that is what everyone wondered if Jackson could produce, they are 21st in passing but Jackson 12 TD and 5 INT for over 1000 yards along with his 374 on the ground. To help with not having to target Andrews so much he gets back Bateman today. Still this team has not gone over 20 the past two games. My prediction 23-20 Ravens. Giants +5
Panthers vs. Rams – Last week I watched an odd penalty on Tom Brady for roughing the passer just to get to the next round of games and see 3 o-linemen out for the Rams and Stafford took a beating all day, barely had time to get his feet set and it caused bad throws and turnovers. Only the center remains out as far as I can tell on that line. As for the Panthers its PJ Walker getting the start and with the coach fired and the teams record where it is we may see guys playing for their very future positions in the NFL the rest of this year. Once again while laying the number at -10 hasn’t been good to me this year I’m a glutton for punishment because I see no way that the Rams play that bad again. Of course they have let some back door covers this year as well like Atlanta when they got a huge lead. This game could mirror that one a bit and who knows if the Panthers will even get enough to get that cover. My prediction 32-21 Rams. Los Angeles -10
Cardinals vs. Seahawks – The Seahawks have played better than many expected them to, 25.4 a game they are 7th in scoring as we have seen Smith can still hit the weapons he has. It will be Kenneth Walker the rest of the year as Penny went out for the year last week in New Orleans. Murray is 2-3 vs. the Seahawks, 1-1 in Seattle. Smith is 1-1 vs. Arizona but this his first start against them for the Seahawks. My prediction 27-23 Cardinals . Arizona -2.5
Bills vs. Chiefs – The game of the day and what may be the regular season game of the year. Last year Buffalo won in the regular season but the other 3 meetings since 2020 have gone to the Chiefs. Analysts seem to think the Chiefs may be able to exploit Mahomes II ability to throw on the scramble vs. the Bills defense vs. a QB on the move, the Bills have allowed league worst receiver separation when the QB scrambles. The Chiefs had trouble with the deep ball last week and that is what they will have to take away to win today. Teams haven’t been able to pressure Allen either, only 1 hit last week and 0 sacks. The Chiefs have a way of finding there way to 31 unless there is an unexpected 2 point conversion, so it’ll be on the Bills to outscore them most likely. They put up 38 in their win at KC last year. KC gets the kicker back and it may be just in time. My prediction 31-28 Chiefs. Kansas City +2.5 and OVER 54
Cowboys vs. Eagles – The game of the day tonight in Philly. One has to wonder will the Cowboys change their entire game plan once Prescott comes back or will they keep with setting the tone at the line of scrimmage and letting this offense first be a threat from Elliot on Pollard. They have beaten the Eagles now 3 times in row giving up 26, 21 and 17 to the Eagles. No one has yet to hit over 20 against the Cowboys D this year. We will truly see how much the Eagles have improved here, but we still aren’t seeing the Cowboys at “FULL STRENGTH”. We may see a bit of a defensive showcase tonight unless they Eagles are able to fly away. My prediction 20-14 Eagles. Cowboys +6.5
Money Line Parlay – Comes to almost even money -115, three favorites no spreads incase your not familiar with “Money Line”
Parlay (3 Picks)
Green Bay Packers
-370
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-480
Los Angeles Rams
-460