This game is tale of two cities which been polar opposites as far as success in recent history. The Chiefs are 5-0 in Week 1 with Mahomes II at QB, they have scored 33 or more in each of the five games. That matters because the Chiefs team total presently sits at 30.5. Last year this team went only 25.5 at home. They have Kelce out for the third time in his career. They are 2-0 in the 2 games started by Mahomes when Kelce is out. The closest of those games was a 4 point win. Only 3 times since 2005 has there been an NFL Kickoff Game decided by 3 or less. Last year the Chiefs scored 29.2 and allowed 21.7 The early action has the Chiefs still taking in the consensus at 67% of the side play money on the Chiefs. We do see the adjustment from -7 down to -4.5 now as Kelce is injured. The Total sitting at 52 is taking in 81% if the action in the early betting.
They face a team in Detroit who is the favorite to win a NFC Central, they have 1 tie and 4 losses last five week 1’s. 43-37-2 All time in week 1. Goff is playing the best he ever has now moving up the passes without an interception list to number 4 at 324. Before you think this game is a forgone conclusion the Lions scored 26.6 per game last year, but will have to improve on the 19.4 per game on the road. They gave up 24.9 on the road.
For what its worth every matchup between these two teams has gone over. However we see the Lions pace played on the road was giving up 25 and the Chiefs pace at home last year was very comfortable at 25 as well. The Chiefs are also missing key players on defense. I feel if you like the Lions then you get them ahead of time. If your on the Chiefs then maybe you hope that line at least gets to 4 even. Of course a million possibilities with live bets but right now I am just gonna say the Chiefs likely win this game. Mahomes II is 13-3 in September, 5-0 week 1, and while the Chiefs won last year but the question is how much does the departure Eric Bieniemy change what goes on with the offense. The injury to Kelce may end up where the ball is evenly distributed as they have done well in the past.
Betting the NFL is always tough, you think you got a good bet when the Chiefs Team Total would be at 28 or so but they adjusted that now you get the 30.5 line, they could go over that number I’m sure but I would think the Lions game plan for success isn’t a shootout in the 30’s. The change in OC and loss of TE and I’m gonna leave that total right there as I don’t think you have a great number. The Chiefs lines have been inflated the past few years and teams like the Bengals will have some of that too as the oddsmakers adjust. I see the move down to 4.5 and you know how extra points can change a cover, or a team trying to get two and don’t get it and end up with a 5 point game. I’ll take the Chiefs at home in game one and nothing ever comes easy in the NFL. Worst case scenario I’ll be glad there was only one game to win or lose on Day 1.
Mahomes averages 3.5 TD per game in Week 1 so far in his career with a 136.9 Rating for week 1.
Goff is 4-2 Week 1 in his career 1.5 TD per game week 1, 88.5 Rating
Chiefs -4.5
Prediction 28-23 Chiefs
Payton, M. (2023). Jared Goff could have a historical night on Thursday. A to Z Sports. https://atozsports.com/detroit/jared-goff-could-have-a-historical-night-on-thursday/
(n.d.). Patrick Mahomes Stats Week 1. Https://www.Statmuse.com. https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/patrick-mahomes-week-1-record-history#:~:text=Patrick%20Mahomes%20has%20a%20record,Week%201%20in%20his%20career.
(n.d.). Pregame Game Center. Pregame.com. https://pregame.com/game-center/?d=NaN&t=2&l=1&a=2&s=AwayRot&m=false&b=undefined&o=Current&c=All&k=