Cincinnati with Jake Browning at QB, all the consensus on the Steelers here 73%. The Steelers against first year QBs 22-4 under Tomlin. However Browning isn’t a rookie, he went undrafted in then signed with the Vikings two years, missed the cut in 2021 and has been on the Bengals practice squad before winning the backup job for the Bengals. Call it how you want but no one is giving the Bengals a shot today. All the Consensus money going on the Steelers. After a loss this year as the Steelers are today is where they have won, however I have watched a lot of Steelers football this year and not been wowed except the Raiders game. Maybe this changes the Bengals offense as they lean too much on Burrow and the passing game, and with Perine gone Mixon has been good but they are not able to offer a solid 100 yard threat from the run attack. The world is on the Steelers today but for me I’ll pass on this one.
Tennessee looks to turn things around as they now sit at 3-7. Back to back double digit losses on the road to the Jags and Bucs making it 3 losses in a row with the Steelers game. All 3 wins this year at home for the Titans. Still do you feel comfortable laying the number here? At -3.5 we see 71% laying the number. For me I’m on the money line and I would actually hope things go either 3-0 7-0 or 7-3 for the Panthers so I might be able to get them at even money instead of the -175. My pick is Titans money line -175.
Jacksonville at Houston – The Texans have been the surprise team of the AFC and now we get a division matchup with front runner Jaguars. Yea I think the Jags are a “better team” but the consensus is going on Houston and the matchup stats are why. Houston has had some bad teams in recent years but they are 10-1 vs. Jacksonville since 2018. Consensus on 63% spread Houston, 77% on the over 48.5. Money line -125 the Jaguars are catching 72% of the money consensus. For me the stats here are a huge throw off from my original pick, so I’ll tell you my pick Jaguars money line. Win or lose here this Jags team is supposed to be “For Real” if they can’t win this road game then maybe they aren’t set to be the dominant team in the AFC South. If you bet here at least now you know the matchup stats.
The Broncos and their win streak face the Browns and their smothering defense. Even with the back up QB we see this number actually without even the field goal the home team gets. On the spread we see 74 % of the consensus money on the Browns. Money line we see 64% on the Broncos. The original number here was Cleveland -3 before the QB change. Seeing them as the favorite here lets me know what the oddsmakers think of the Broncos win streak. For me they are on the win streak, they are at home and this is a winnable game. I’ll take the Broncos here knowing I’d rather have them live bet if the Browns score first. Broncos -120.
It may be one of those days where I don’t win a single game, keeping with the theme of games I’m picking where I could easily be wrong. The Bills at Eagles. I just think Buffalo is due to not turn the ball over and they really need a win. Of course the Eagles are a snapped fumble away from being defending Super Bowl champs who are also on the way to repeat at NFC East Champs, no one has repeated in that division since 2005. You can take the 3 if you want but I’m taking Buffalo +140 money line, my reasoning is the Bills had gone away from using Josh Allen in the run game leading to the turnovers, but with the change in OC and desperation I think we start to see it more because that is a huge part of what makes him one of the top QBs without his ability to run he would slide down the list.
Rams have won 12 of 14 vs. the Cardinals, but the Cards do have Murray back and almost won last week. I’ll take the Rams just -145 money line instead of -2.5. On the spread consensus is 51% to 49% and this is a game the Cardinals could easily win. Rams -145.
There you have it or maybe you might be better off fading me here. These are the picks but these are also the hardest games on the board to pick this week. Could be a rough one or maybe I’ll get lucky. As always best of luck and enjoy your Sunday.