The playoffs kickoff with Houston hosting Cleveland. Now these guys played December 24 but CJ Stroud was injured for that one and Davis Mills was in at QB for the Texans. That being the case we do have stats for Flacco and the Browns offense, even though it may be more Texans moving the ball in this one so the Browns you wouldn’t expect another blowout. Flacco threw for 368 3 TD and 2 INT the Browns only rushed for 54 yards on 30 carries. As that translates over to the playoffs is what you can expect the run to be more than the 1.8 yards it was per carry in that game, and I would say less passes thrown than the 42 Joe threw in December.
The key matchup for me is going to be the Browns defense vs. the deep ball thrown by Stroud. I listen to a lot of games on the radio and the ability to get deep has been amazing this year for the rookie. I would expect that to be where the priority is defensively for Cleveland.
The determining factor for me is Joe Flacco with the Super Bowl ring vs. the rookie CJ Stroud for the Texans. I’ll take the veteran here. Consensus going Houstons way ATS with 54% on the +2, however the money line is where I am as I see no point in laying -2. The fact that Cleveland is favored where the home team is usually -3 is another thing but that actually goes in your favor if we’re on the other side with Houston. I’m with the 77% consensus on money line Cleveland -130
141: NFL: Browns -130 – 77% money line consensus
Saturday Night in Kansas City we see a rematch of a week 9 game in Germany. A lot of point were expected there and it was a slowdown 21-14 Cheifs, holding Tua to 190 yards passing and Mahomes 185, Kelce on 3 catches 14 yards. Points will be at premium here because both coaches want to keep the other teams offense on the sideline. Coach Reid is a veteran coach who is hard to beat at all much less at home in the playoffs, but this is a proving ground for the Dolphins and McDaniel. Pressure and sacks slow down the Dolphins but McDaniel as the former SF run game coordinator I would expect to be the reason why Mahomes has limited opportunities. 14 picks thrown for Mahomes this year and if you look at consensus you would think the Chiefs are loaded up for title run, but a few times this year teams have slowed them down. 73 % on Kansas City -4.5, 87% on -225 money line. Personally I know the Dolphins are capable of creating problems and playing the type of game the need to in order to cover or possibly pull a major upset. I’m not betting against Reid, Mahomes and Kelce at Arrowhead or whatever name they call it now. I’ll take the under here.
144: NFL: Chiefs UN u44 – 75 % Consensus
Sunday 1 pm the Bills hosting the Steelers. This will be a chance to see how much the Steelers have really evolved here. Buffalo beat them soundly last year in one of Picketts first games 38-3. This one the veteran Rudolph who has come in and earned his playing time. I think that Buffalo really has momentum and might be able to make a run here. Cook has been an improvement at running back and with the change of OC the QB run has shown up again. The Steelers strength is defense, but Watt is gone for this one. They have struggled without him at times directly related to losing streaks. The strike point might be with the Bills running and passing to tight ends as that appears to be the best place to strike the Steelers. The strength of them being the secondary and Allen has some interception problems. This is another one where I like the under or I did when it was 44 but now at 34 the value has gone. The Bills to win money line is a place to look for your sports investment play. With the spread so high it might scare you but I tell you what I think will happen is the -7.5 to -9.5 move doesn’t matter it will be 7 or 10 points Bills win this thing. I don’t think the Steelers are going to throw on Buffalo with great success. My pick on the spread is Buffalo 68 % consensus in agreement – with the Money line being what should be a winner as well
146: NFL: Bills -9-111
146: NFL: Bills -470
Jerry’s World as the Packers travel to Dallas where the Cowboys are 8-0 at home this year bringing the number one offense scoring and yardage. This is one that the Cowboys are expected to win. We might see Green Bay with the ability to move the ball some but I don’t think they will be coming to play around here. I honestly can tell you this the best bet here is looking Dallas money line. With Dallas team total being the best even money play. The Combined total is at 86 over 50.5 27.5 at -165 or 30.5 at +100. Also Green Bay looking alright at 20.5. So there are your options for betting the totals. Dallas taking in 73% consensus -7 and 96% -325 money line for a sports investment play. Cowboys the top 5 defense as well so well see where they at.
148: NFL: Cowboys -7
148: NFL: Cowboys -325
Motor City vs. City of Angels at Ford Field in Detroit. The QBs with the trade and really this game may come down to that because McVay and his knowledge of everything Goff does. The Rams are hot and looking like they could pull an upset here. The Rams even have the run attack going coming into this one, the only team to beat them since Kupp came back mid season was the Ravens and that was by a field goal. The under dog in me want to root for the Lions, I always have a little bit. I’m thinking this one is a straight even matchup and I’m gonna just grab the 3 points and I don’t know any other way to approach this game. I give the Rams a shot to win this game, 53% of betters are in agreement at consensus +145 money line. 66% consensus on the +3. Took a hard look at the over here with 82% on the over here. Scratched the over for me – 149: NFL: Rams OV o51½
149: NFL: Rams +3+ev
Monday Night Football Playoff – The defending NFC Champs on the road in Tampa Bay. They played in September it was 25-11 Eagles. I’m just gonna blindly take the Eagles after that knowing it’ll be closer I’m sure, over on the money line for me even at -155.
151: NFL: Eagles -155
As always best of luck and Enjoy your Wild Card Weekend