Texans vs. Ravens – Its the years surprise team vs. this years Super Bowl favorite to start of the divisional round. Like the Browns these two met earlier this year. It was a 25-9 week 1 so that was Strouds first game and he has developed since that day where he threw for 242 yards but was sacked five times and the Texans didn’t find the end zone. Oddly enough it was Jacksons second lowest yardage for the year at only at 169 an efficient 17-22 with 38 yards on the ground. Things were 7-6 at halftime in that game.
Turning to Saturday’s game we see the big number with the Ravens laying -9.5. The problem when betting this game is these stats:
· Home teams in the divisional round are 26-10 SU (72%), 18-17-1 ATS (51%).
· Home favorites of 7.5 or more points are 20-8 SU (71%), 11-18 ATS (38%) last 20 seasons.
· Home favorites of 7 or fewer points are 29-15 SU and 22-21-1 ATS.
The home teams here winning at around 70%, but when favored by 7.5 or more they are covering only 38 % over the last 20 seasons. Bringing us to look at the Texans, and are they a danger to pull the upset here. The deep passing game is where I would consider the Texans to be a danger.The Ravens’ defense finished first in completion percentage allowed (20.0), passing yards per attempt (7.1), pass TD-INT (2-5), and passer rating allowed (33.0) on deep passes in the 2023 regular season, per NGS.(2024). The Ravens being the number 1 scoring defense, the Browns had the number 1 yardage defense. The only time a rookie has beat both those number 1’s in a playoff is Joe Montana. Another big factor is there is now a year of game tape on Stroud, and the fact that Houston struggled to run the ball against the Ravens in week 1.
Where is the money going at consensus? 56% laying the -9.5, 83% on the -450 money line and 70% on the over 43.5 after a huge adjustment up from 35. Last week betting the money line would’ve been a horrible in the Dallas game but this isn’t Dallas. There isn’t a lot of talk about it right now but Lamar Jackson has his own playoff struggles to overcome. 1-3 in 4 playoff appearances, 3 TD and 5 INT in those playoff games. Looking at his stats from week 1 if the Ravens are to cover it will be from long drives followed up with a quick appearance for the defense 1 or 2 drives and then right back with another long drive. We have seen this Ravens team look and feel completely different and blow out teams as they want to down the stretch to claiming the number 1 seed. Personally I have noticed the improvement in the pass attack from Jackson, he must’ve worked on that in the offseason. Hopefully I’ll do better with this than last week but all I can do is make my pick, anyone who has ever tried to pick every game knows that if your bad day or weekend is 3-3 then your doing alright. At -9.5 its definitely a thought process to hold out for better number on live bet as it was 7-6 at halftime week 1, that can sometime result in missing a play all together ie. it goes 14 -0 Ravens in the first half, with the -450 being once again a big risk but still one to consider, picking it From November 16 till the Dolphins win they reeled of 6 double digit wins in a row, that was following the loss to the Browns where they blew a double digit lead, still 10 double digit wins for the season. My prediction 31 -20 Ravens.
302: NFL: Ravens -9½
(2024). NFL Playoffs: NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends and Expert Picks. Www.Rotowire.com. https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/nfl-playoffs-nfl-divisional-round-betting-trends-and-expert-picks-78974
Ravens defense ready to face ‘a whole different’ C.J. Stroud than the one they saw in Week 1. NFL.com. https://www.nfl.com/news/ravens-defense-ready-to-face-a-whole-different-c-j-stroud-than-the-one-they-saw-in-week-1#:~:text=Conversely%2C%20the%20Ravens%27%20defense%20finished,2023%20regular%20season%2C%20per%20NGS.
The Saturday night matchup features two coaches familiar with the others offense, as it has been said on Sirius NFL Blitz, “They both run the exact same offense.” The Packers still have to hope the matchup stats hold true even tho now it’s Love at QB instead of Rodgers. Last one being that 13-10 snow playoff game at Lambeau, then two Packers wins in the other two recent ones. Does that trend of being able to move the ball on the 49ers stay around even with Love quarterbacking?
The 49ers have 11 double digit wins this year and when it was close only once with that being week 2 Rams a 7 point win, the others were losses. Mr. Irrelevant draft day is very relevant Saturday. Can Green Bay replicate the defensive performance of Cleveland and Baltimore who both gave lots trouble in beating the 49ers. The key thing was really the injuries as it was Kittle and Samuel knocked out of the Browns game I believe and without Deebo came the losing streak. Now the Ravens went ou6t there and beat the full force 49ers offense.
Both these games are really tough because you look and say well the 49ers should win. 80% consensus on over 50.5 and are we about to have another offensive showcase? The guys putting money down think so, but 62% on the 49ers laying -10. 84 % on the money line going 49ers as well. Before I would take the underdog in both these games before I would take both favorites, but my confidence level isn’t that high with either game. My prediction 30-24 49ers
303: NFL: Packers +10
The Bucs are expected to be able to move the ball on the Lions secondary, but they should’ve earlier this year by that theory and it was 20-6 win for Detroit down in Tampa. It was Goff throwing for 344 and 2 TD in that one. What about the pressure from that Bucs D? 3 sacks but 0 interceptions. Mayfield was held to a 56.8 passer rating in getting slightly over 200 yards with 1 INT.
Even though it was a blowout last week I scratched my Eagles pick after the news of AJ Brown being out but I had already published the podcast before that news. There is something going on in Detroit that has never happened and that’s a second home playoff game. I’m not sure that I won’t be waiting and hoping the line gets a slight drop here if the Bucs show up early, but the Lions have had the fast start down pat this year, last week starting 14-3, 21-0 start in New Orleans…
60 % on the Lions -6, 90 % on the money line -265 and 56 % on the over 49. There is no easy win here and once again I could be wrong here as on Sirius XM the radio hosts were giving a lot of talk to the Mike Evans being able to get open against the Lions D thus making the outright upset here a possibility. I’m sure I won’t have all these game right but my prediction is 30-23 Lions.
316: NFL: Lions -6
The Heavyweight Main Event of the weekend Sunday Night in snow covered Buffalo. Any questions about could the Chiefs wide receivers hold on the ball were answered vs. the Dolphins. Mahomes in his first road playoff game an underdog Sunday. Where might they have an advantage? With the injuries the Bills have on defense particulary at linebacker. These two met in KC earlier this year and it was the Bills who escaped with a victory where it was first one to 20 points wins and that was Buffalo 20-17.
53% on the under 45.5 and to many ,” Experts ” that is the best play of the day despite the Bills averaging 29.6 at home this year and the Chiefs 20.9 on the road. I could see this thing getting over at say 27-20 but we have also seen these two play the 20-17 game. The prior meeting was 24-20 however the previous 6 games between these two all since 2020 3 would’ve been over the total Sunday and 3 under.
The Bills taking 59 % on the money line -146 and 58 % -2.5. I was unsure if the Chiefs were at the same level last week but they showed up and showed out. This is a different matchup and besides the whole Bills Mafia thing this is still the most likely to see an outright upset on Sunday. For some reason I just think this is the most complete Bills team we have seen plus the experiences of losing and even loses to the Chiefs in the playoffs in 2022 have to be stepping stones to success in this one as they saw how close they were. On the other hand it’s been the Chiefs who have the track record of winning in January. I think this one is close and these games for betting a load of money are so close I could go 0-4 this weekend but my prediction is 23-19 Bills. With my play going over to the money line incase this thing goes 23-22.
318: NFL: Bills -146
As always best of luck and enjoy your weekend, and remember if your going to wager make sure its not too much where you end up getting an ulcer because your team may put you in the worst 3 hours of sports like the Packers did last weekend where I just saw enough of that and went on the bed even though I had plenty of sleep already.