The line San Francisco -2, the Chiefs underdogs again with around 80% of these early bets going on KC. The matchup has also been the Chiefs way going back to the before the Super Bowl in 2020. 38, 31, 44 the numbers Mahomes has put up against the 49ers all double digit wins. 286 the lowest yardage total for Mahomes in the 3 games.
Is this 49ers being favored after the head to head stats going all the way telling us something or trying to throw us off? A closer look at that last Super Bowl game might lead to some insight. How about 4th quarter and the 49ers were up 20-10. Yea I know KC finished it off with 21 in row for a 31-20 win. How do you rate the QB change in San Francisco, the addition of McCaffery. They have been improved on the offensive side as that team was built on defense. My guess being that game entering the 4th quarter with SF ahead might be an insight into why the 49ers are favored when they 3 games they have played with most of their teams the same have been double digit wins for the Chiefs.
A look into Mahomes II career passing vs. the 49ers he is 3-0 including the postseason, 341 per game vs. them, 286 in the Super Bowl. With the lowest point total being 31 in that Super Bowl and all 3 would’ve been over the number of 47.5. 80 percent consensus taking the over 47.5, which is actually in contrast to the way KC has been playing lately coming in with the under hitting in the AFC Championship. Both team defenses giving up slightly over 17 per game, 2nd and 3rd in the league. I’m not sure the over/under isn’t really close to where it’s going to be. In Fact the most surprising thing is that SF is favored here. Mahomes is 11-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. The third week in a row they are the underdog. He wins 82 % of the time in the playoffs thus far in his career. All the stats on the surface point to KC with the head to head numbers all favoring KC.
The 49ers do in my opinion hold the advantage in running the ball. teams that win the rushing battle in the Super Bowl are an astonishing 40-14-3 ATS (74.1%) and 42-15 SU (73.7%). In the regular season, the 49ers were third in the league in rushing at 140.5 rush yards per game, while the Chiefs ranked 19th at 104.9. Teams that win the Super Bowl are 48-7-2 ATS in the game, covering at an 87% clip. As I think you take the money line with either side. For the 49ers they might wanna hope for a game like Denver played against KC, slowing them down even in the game they covered the big spread the first time around. There are quite a few games this year where KC looked vulnerable it’ll be interesting to see if the scheme can change this game from the 49ers.
Last time these two played I was wrong and looking at these stats from head to head matchup I may be wrong again with my pick. San Francisco the better at stopping the run with KC the better scoring defense. It was 20-10 I remember in the last Super Bowl and for some reason the 49ers started trying to throw the ball more when the run had been there all night. There are some who feel that Purdy is an upgrade at QB, the book maker must be one of them because the two time defending champs are underdogs here. Teams favored in every game as the 49ers have been and are every game this season are 0-6 in the big game. If you’re looking for a sure thing it ain’t here, the best advice may be if your needing a come up good luck because this may be an all time great game no matter the outcome. I’ll stick with who I had last time they met in the Super Bowl. My prediction 26 -23 49ers.
As always best of luck and enjoy your Super Bowl.
(n.d.). 2024 Super Bowl LVIII odds: 10 betting trends to know for 49ers-Chiefs. Foxsports.com. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2024-super-bowl-lviii-odds-10-betting-trends-to-know-for-49ers-chiefs