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AFC
Kansas City vs. Baltimore – What a matchup, as a fan can you really ask for a better game to have on the schedule for Championship Sunday. This could be the year of Harbaugh, but standing in their way the defending champs. The Chiefs had questions coming into the postseason but have looked like the switch was flipped and they have played two of the most impressive games this playoffs have seen.
Head to head they haven’t met since 2021 – Mahomes 3-1 vs. the Ravens and as underdog in this situation is almost too good. They have looked like they are hitting on all cylinders the past two weeks. Is Mahomes still the best QB taking the field on Sunday? Success is, just like the Bills last week, judged by the playoffs for a QB to reach a certain level. Mahomes 13-3 in the playoffs.
Jackson is 2-3 in the playoffs. This is clearly a better Ravens team and they have an impressive list of double digit wins this year. Things were tied at halftime last week 10-10 and with the relatively low total you might see the first half where your team having the ball is the best defense as well because they aren’t scoring when your keeping the ball. Head to Head these two QBs and Mahomes is up 3-1, with 51 being the lowest total down to 44.5 after starting at 50 before whatever caused the adjustment. A curious move considering 84 % of the cash is on the over. 63 % on the Ravens -4 as of right now, money line 75 % on the Ravens to win. UNDER is 11-4 Kansas City’s last 15 games, UNDER is 13-4 Kansas City’s last 17 conference games, Ravens UNDER 7-0-1 as home playoff chalk since 1995 and maybe its actually the bookmaker who knows more with the landslide 5.5 adjustment. Baltimore putting up 32 a game at home this year, Kansas City only 21.4 per game on the road. KC 26 per game in the playoffs and 34 for the Ravens in their game. However the defensive stats of 18 BAL a game and 17 KC a game allowed that shift it the other way.
Chiefs are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as the underdog, Ravens are 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite. Ravens are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games played in January, Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played in January. There you have it stats both ways and really this is a game where you could ruin an all time classic by making an incorrect wager.
Everyone can make their pick and you see the consensus on the Ravens, I’m gonna go with them kind of because I think they win but I’m still going to pick the Chiefs here because escaping with the win is the goal and winning by 5 or more is a tough task against the defending champs. Knowing this game can really go Ravens cover and over with it just going 27-20 but I thought this thing might turn into both Harbaugh brothers winning a championship, well see if they can overcome their January struggles. I’m comfortable taking the points here and being ok if it’s wrong because I’m still picking the Ravens to win by 3. Prediction 23-20 Ravens.
319: NFL: Chiefs +4+ev
320: NFL: Ravens UN u44½
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NFC
Detroit vs. San Francisco – The Lions in search of their first Super Bowl come in a touchdown under dog to play the 49ers. For the Lions being here prior to this season wasn’t considered a real possibility, but with the win week 1 the season has a cinderella feel to it. I’m a fan of the underdog or underestimated in football and life in general as I myself fall into both categories. They run into the 49ers looking like an uphill battle for the Lions however. The line right around the difference between them in the last matchup between the two teams. That was week 1 of 2021 with Jimmy G still at QB. We will see how good the Lions defense has improved from that one where they let up 41. Goff led a 2nd half not really comeback after it being 31-10 at half time.
This year SF scoring 26.9 at home, the Lions 24.1 on the road with 28.3 on their last 3. The 49ers poor performances came mostly during that stretch from the Cleveland game and then games vs. the Bengals and Vikings where they weren’t at full strength. For the Lions D they will have to duplicate the Baltimore or Cleveland style game. 23rd in scoring D at 24 a game you Detroit, San Francisco a stingy 19 a game given up at home. A look at the 49ers numbers 27 scored and 19 given up at home and we see the same 8 point difference.
Lions are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games, Lions are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road, Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games, Lions have won 6 straight January games, 5-1 ATS, Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as the underdog. 49ers are 0-6 ATS past 6 home games.
Based on recent performance the 49ers earned the number they are giving up with all the guys who bet them every week maybe pushing it higher. This year however only 9-9 ATS despite all the double digit wins. The Lions the league best 13-6 ATS. Consensus 57 % on Detroit ATS, 45 % on Detroit money line, 61 % on the over 51.5. My prediction 28-24 49ers.
While I may bet one I will just pick the other.
321: NFL: Lions OV o51½
321 Detroit Lions +7
Well it’s one thing I’ve learned time after time is that the underdogs start to cover more as the playoff rounds get deeper. Those are my picks, I know neither of them are a sure thing and after seeing those stats you should too. Remember bet responsibly unless your just in and irresponsible mood, with gambling you’ve got to be ready to lose in order to win. Whatever you do enjoy your weekend. As always best of luck.