Jacksonville at Miami -3.5 The Dolphins come in favored and sure to put a test with 3 top level wide receivers to spread the field against the 2023 26th ranked pass defense. When healthy the Jags were at the top of the AFC South, Lawrence comes back less than 100 percent and they ended up not making the playoffs but everyone acts like they will just not be able to compete with Houston and they are really the sneaky right behind the Texans for now. They extended Lawrence and Ettiene and they have to feel that when healthy they are a playoff team still. For Miami they bring in OBJ with Waddle and Hill now that is a trio that should be right there with Cincinnati for best receiver group. Miami went 27.9 per game last year, Jacksonville 22.2 with a backup for part of the year. The Jags give up 21.8 per game last year and the Dolphins gave up 23.2. At home the Phins went to 31.9 and its right about there where I would think they should be in the 27-30 point range. The Jaguars 23.7 on the road last year and this one is where its gonna be close, my pick is Dolphins -175, they may or may not cover the -3.5 this is the NFL and those points when you’ve got a team with a veteran QB can be the difference real easy, they could be down 8 and miss the 2 point to tie, or down 10 and bring it to within a field goal without it stressing the side who is ahead. Consensus is all on the Dolphins 71%-3.5 and 90%money line -175, the Jags beat them 23-20 last time they played but well see how much the Dolphins continue to improve, if they are to dethrone Buffalo in the east their time is now win or lose this game. My prediction is 27-23 Miami, knowing that would entail the Dolphins getting lose in the secondary all day long as Jacksonville is satisfied slowing it down, we have seen teams hold the Dolphins to lower scores for as long as they can hang on and remain close so I am not recommending the over as I’m not sure that is close to that total even tho I predict a lean towards over 49.
| 456 | Dolphins -175 Try to get even money live bet |
Pittsburgh at Atlanta -3 I know everyone has whatever to say about how the experiment in changing QB hasn’t worked in pre season, but I’ve learned over time this is a spot for me to take Pittsburgh +3 and Steelers +155. No there are no guarantees but the consensus is for now not in agreement with me. 44% on the Steelers +3, only 17% Steelers +155. I’m guessing those guys know something I don’t. These are new QB’s on both sides so stats really aren’t of use. Cousins has seen Pittsburgh twice 1-1 record, we will have to see how much he really is back once things are regular season. He was at the top of the league in passing yards and he has several good targets and is playing in a dome so they should have their chances to win the south. On the other side does Wilson still have it? For his career vs. Atlanta he is 4-1. When he was at his best he had Lynch at RB and Harris is that guy for the Steelers or he will have to be for them to have a balanced attack. Pittsburgh have given up 20 a game on the road, the Falcons gave up around the same 20 per game last year at home. I would expect this thing to be about 20-17 – 23-20 range no matter who wins. At 42 as the over/under 70%on the under consensus. That is where my pick is as well, I haven’t seen the Falcons yet but I know traditionally the Steelers generally come in with a shot to win these games outright.
| 457 458 Under 42 | Steelers +155 , Steelers +3 |
Vikings vs. Giants +1.5, If you ever wonder what the Giants will do without Barkley, well they saw that plenty over the past few years since he was injured so much and it wasn’t really good most of the time. The time is now however for Daniel Jones, if he is to remain the guy on a team that hasn’t competed except for one year since he’s been there. On the other side Sam Darnold gets maybe the best receiver group he has worked with on the Vikings. Of all the games to pick randomly to bet on this weekend why this one? More than all but the Bengals/Patriots and Panthers/Saints is this game where the 88k bet as of right now has 72% on the Giants. Jones has led the G-men twice against Minnesota and is 0-2 regular season 1-0 playoffs. Sam Darnold is 2-1 vs. the Giants. I’m guessing the guys making up that 72% right now are banking on Daboll and company being able to execute similarly to how they did in the playoffs. We really don’t know what we will see from either of these teams but both are probably picked to finish last in their respective divisions by the general public. I’ll lean towards the home team as well, at least they aren’t in limbo of do we have Barkley or not and they can move on until they face him twice.
| 460 | Giants +1.5 |
Panthers vs. Saints – Based on last years games where the Saints won both matchups they would’ve covered once and not covered the other. The Saints when they have everyone healthy have been a feast or famine team, completely demolishing in games like this is what is expected. The general public sees Carolina gives up 28 a game last year on the road, New Orleans gives up 18.9 at home and you wonder why 56% of the consensus is on the Panthers +4. Last September they hosted the Saints and lost by 3. Improvement from that would mean winning one of the two games at least. How unlikely is it that the Panthers start 1-0? Who knows honestly . I have no idea here but my head originally tells me the Saints should have the better record this year. Will they cover if they win? about 50/50 odds here or do you look at last years points per game 25 per game at home for NO, 14 a game on the road for Carolina won’t get it done. They may have improved but the Superdome is very difficult to go in and pull the upset. My prediction 27-20 Saints.
| 462 | Saints -205 , Saints -4 |
Patriots vs. Bengals – This one is either the obvious with 92% consensus on the Bengals (assuming that Chase is on the field) or it could be that the Patriots are going to compete with the vet at QB versus getting blown out with the rookie. I’m not sure there is any other way you can really go with this one. If Chase is on the field its lay the 8 or wait and see if Brissett can duplicate things from that Halloween night nightmare where the Browns shocked the Bengals and Burrow. New England was 9th in pass defense yards per game around 208 last year. I’m not sure the Bengals really addressed the departure of Mixon, and really didn’t replace Perine in last years roster. Moss played well thus far but not sure he will be able to even get where Mixon was enough to keep the defense guessing at all. Thats my primary concern for the Bengals along with the health of Burrow’s wrist, the ability to produce something on the ground in what should be favorable coverages, I would guess Peyton Manning would be counting defenders and audible to run plays a lot with the coverages that the Bengals will face. Burrow faced New England once and he did get a win, and threw for 375 yards 40 for 52 completing 76% of his passes… but the score was 22-18 Bengals. I know this is Mayo’s team now but he is from the defensive side of the ball and I would imagine the gameplan from that game has to be where his thoughts are because at 22-18 your #1 right where the total is 40 and #2 still would then be in a position for the 4th quarter to matter. My only pick here is the Bengals money line, they may well blow out the Patriots as 92% on the Bengals -8. For making a pick sake I’m on Bengals -8 but my play is to watch the game and try to get the best number I can on live bet. Burrow had some trouble with Cleveland week 1 last year.
464: NFL: Bengals -400
Raiders vs. Chargers – The Harbaugh era is underway and I am a Raiders fan but I think this means success for the Chargers right out the gate. Money line -160. I just think over the course of the season the will win more than lose and be second best in the AFC West. Seeking payback from the blowout at the hands of the Silver and Black. These two have split each year last two and the Raiders are the biggest bet money line dog yet this week. My pick is still Chargers -160 money line
The Browns started out hot last year with a week 1 win vs. the Bengals, prior to that week 1 hadn’t been where they got their wins at. Number 1 pass D yards allowed last year vs. the Cowboys who may not be able to run the ball with the roster changes, or it remains a question mark. Check out the podcast for the rest.
As always Best of Luck and Enjoy your weekend!