For my games today we are in the AL Central, where the Twins and their offseason moves have them sitting 4.5 games ahead ten days into the All-Star Break. This creates a potentially season changing 11 games with no off days for the 2nd place Guardians. They were just swept in a four game set in Detroit and now off the one day of rest are at Kansas City for 3 games before heading home for a 4 game series with the White Sox including a double-header and then the same Tigers team that just swept them comes to Cleveland for 4 in their park. They sit 3 games back in the Wild Card standings as well as 4.5 back of the Twins in the Central.
The Guardians are 5-2 vs. the Royals heading into this three game series. Civale gets the start for Cleveland, he has one start vs. KC this year a no decision going 3.1 innings giving up 4 hits and 4 runs, 2 of which were earned. Two starts vs. KC in 2021, going 5.2 innings, 7 hits, 3 earned runs and 5.1 innings, 4 hits and 4 earned runs both no decisions and both at Kauffman Stadium. On the other side Singer making his second start vs. Cleveland this year, he went 3 innings, 6 hits, 4 earned runs in a no decision in the first start. Last year he had 3 starts vs. Cleveland, 5.2 innings, 4 hits, 3 earned runs. A win going 7 innings, 6 hits 2 earned runs. And one bad start of .2 innings, 3 hits, 3 earned.
We see about what to expect from both starters here and honestly when the going rate is looking like 3 or 4 runs from both starters the over isn’t looking like a bad choice at 8.5 because the Royals bullpen particularly gave up the lead in 3 of the games down in Houston. Kansas City’s bullpen ERA (4.67) and WHIP (1.45) are the AL’s worst (click the link for the Si article detailing the Royals bullpen problems.)
Game one vegas has the Royals as a favorite, but with Cleveland being the team who has won 5 of 7 vs the Royals this year and they have to be hungry to get a win after getting torched by the Tigers hitting in Detroit. My picks : The Guardians +114 and even though over/under plays are often my least favorite I like the over 8.5 runs.
To the Southside where to some the White Sox have underperformed and some were calling for La Russa’s job earlier this year basically for the Sox dealing with injuries and being inflated favorites to win the division. Rest at ease the season is only halfway over, Eloy Jimenez sparked the clubhouse in his return from IL as the Sox rallied from two run deficits 3 times winning in extras before losing the opener to the Tigers in a pitchers duel.
Giolito’s only start vs. Detroit this year he went 4 innings, 1 hit and 6 k’s which ended up a no decision after the the Tigers came back with 2 in the bottom of the 9th to walk of with the win. Last year he saw them five times: 6.2 innings, 5 hits, 4 earned with 7 SO in a losing effort – 7 innings, 7 hits, 4 earned runs and 9 SO in another losing effort – 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 earned runs and 9 SO in a no decision the Sox won – 5 innings, 10 hits, 6 earned and 5 SO in a loss July 4th 2021 – and then 5 inning, 2 hits, 1 earned run and 3 SO in another win that was a no decision Sox win. So what we are looking at is most likely a quality start from Lucas Giolito based on the recent matchup vs the Tigers lineup.
On the other side Skubal for the Tigers, his one start vs. them this year was 4 innings, 7 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned, 3 SO in an April 10th loss in Detroit. He had 3 games against them last year two of which were wins- a 5 inning, 4 hit, 1 run effort with 11k’s in Chicago, he gave up 3 and 5 runs in his other two starts vs. the White Sox winning one and having a no decision loss in the other.
We see both these teams are very familiar with each other, the White Sox lead the season matchup 5-2 with 12 meetings to go counting today. As far as the over under goes we see the total at 8.5, the pick there is the White Sox over 4, presently at -135. Only in one of the 7 games between these two have the Sox scored under 4, matching 4 in the first game, with 5 of them scoring between 5 and 13 runs against the Tigers. I also like the White Sox to win but with a flood of money of them the price is up to -180 at present for them.
As always Best of Luck and enjoy your Friday